Can Warriors’ defense stifle the surging Spurs, go 8 straight under the total?

Another game without Kevin Durant, another ferocious display of defense and upset on the road against a Western Conference contender by the Golden State Warriors.

How will KD’s likely return and Andrew Bogut’s possible insertion into the lineup affect the Warriors’ current rhythm as they take on the San Antonio Spurs in the Lone Star state?

Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Monday March 18, 2019 at 5:00pm PST.

Where: AT&T Center, San Antonio, Texas

TV: ESPN

Line: Warriors -2.5, o/u 225

Injuries: Dejounte Murray (knee) is out for the Spurs.

Kevin Durant (ankle) and Andrew Bogut (personal) are probable, DeMarcus Cousins (ankle) is doubtful and Damian Jones (pectoral) is out for the Warriors.

San Antonio Spurs

San Antonio improved to 41-29 with a 108-103 win at home against the Portland Trailblazers and have now won eight straight.

The Spurs are led by DeMar DeRozan with 21.6 points and 6.1 assists per game, LaMarcus Aldridge with 8.9 rebounds per game.

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

San Antonio is scoring 111.9 points per game (16th of 30), allowing 110.4 points per game (13th of 30), earning a simple rating system (SRS) score of 1.85 (12th of 30), pace factor of 98.6 (22nd of 30), offensive rating of 112.9 (16th of 30) and defensive rating of 111.4 (20th of 30).

The Spurs are 39-31 against the spread (ATS), 39-30-1 to the over/under, 8-1 ATS as a home underdog, 19-22 ATS with one day off, 6-3 to the over/under as a home underdog and 22-18-1 to the over/under with one day off this season.

San Antonio has been a covering machine lately, 7-3 ATS in their last ten games, including five straight, 2-8 to the over/under in their last ten, averaging 105.7 points per game at home, 105.3 points per game after the All-Star break, 109.6 points per game on one days rest this season.

Golden State Warriors

Golden State sustained rejuvenated chemistry and defense for a second straight game to suffocate the Oklahoma City Thunder at their house to the tune of a 110-88 drubbing, improving to 47-21 while building some momentum on the road.

The Warriors are led by Stephen Curry scoring 27.9 points per game and Draymond Green with 7.4 rebounds and 7.0 assists per game.

Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports

Golden State is scoring 117.9 points per game (1st of 30), allowing 111.8 points per game (19th of 30), earning a SRS score of 6.12 (2nd of 30), pace factor of 101.1 (10th of 30), offensive rating of 115.9 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 110.0 (15th of 30).

The Dubs are 28-39-1 ATS, 33-35 to the over/under, 16-18 ATS as the away team, 15-26-1 ATS in conference games, 19-15 to the over/under as the away team, 18-10 to the over/under as an away favorite, 26-20 to the over/under after a win and 19-23 to the over/under in conference games this season.

Golden State is 4-6 ATS, 1-9 to the over/under in their last ten games, averaging 109.5 points per game in March, 110.4 points per game on one day of rest and 103.0 points per game against the Spurs this season.

Analysis

We don’t know why the Warriors’ chemistry and defense improved with KD out of the line up for two games, but it did, as it has for stretches in the past. The question is whether the Dubs keep the momentum and defensive intensity going with KD and Andrew Bogut back in the rotation and before they revert back into load management mode before the playoffs.

Defensive intensity can be dramatically affected by attitude, and the Dubs were able to refocus their trademark selfless attitude and defensive hustle the past two games and it’s very likely that KD’s time away from the team while watching them have fun and smother teams may help remind him why he joined this team and inspire him to join in on the fun.

While there are questions about how many minutes Andrew Bogut might play if any at all on Monday, there is no question that Andrew Bogut brings defensive prowess to the squad and that he is a significant upgrade from DeMarcus Cousins on defense.

In his final two seasons with the Warriors, Bogut finished no worse than third in defensive win shares and first in defensive box plus/minus, and some might argue that if he had been healthy for game seven of the NBA Finals in 2016 the Warriors would have won the title that year.

Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images

San Antonio has been clicking on all cylinders and while they started out the season as a team that went over the total in a high percentage of games, they too have turned on the defensive intensity lately and have been trending under in their last ten games and in three straight.

Three of the last four contests between these teams have gone under the total and the last five games in San Antonio between these teams have finished under 207 total points. With Bogut back and KD likely refreshed and possibly less grumpy than he has appeared at other times this season, we see the Warriors keeping the defensive intensity going for at least another game and a physical contest from both sides, making us lean toward under 225 total points.