clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Will Warriors bounce back on no rest at the Wolves, make it 9 straight under the total?

New, comment

Golden State will play the second game of a back-to-back as 6.5-point favorites at Minnesota.

NBA: Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs
Kevin Durant had 24 points in his return but it was not enough to help beat the Spurs.
Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

Despite the return of Kevin Durant and Andrew Bogut, the Golden State Warriors were stopped by the San Antonio Spurs’ relentless defense and will have no time to rest before the last stop on this current road trip at the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Tuesday March 19, 2019 at 5:00pm PST

Where: Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota

TV: NBC Sports Bay Area

Line: Warriors -6.5, o/u 229.5

Injuries: Derrick Rose (elbow) is doubtful, Jeff Teague (foot), Luol Deng (Achilles) and Robert Covington (knee) are out for the Wolves.

Andre Iguodala (teeth) is questionable, Jacob Evans (illness is questionable, DeMarcus Cousins (ankle) is doubtful and Damian Jones (pectoral) is out for the Warriors.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Minnesota dropped to 32-38 with a 103-117 loss at the Houston Rockets and have lost three straight.

The Wolves are led by Karl-Anthony Towns with 24.6 points and 12.2 rebounds per game and Derrick Rose with 4.3 assists per game.

NBA: Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets
Karl-Anthony Towns leads the Wolves in points and rebounds per game.
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota is scoring 112.6 points per game (13th of 30), allowing 113.5 points per game (22nd of 30), earning a simple rating system (SRS) score of -0.76 (17th of 30), pace factor of 100.0 (15th of 30), offensive rating of 111.8 (12th of 30) and defensive rating of 112.7 (24th of 30).

The Wolves are 34-36 against the spread (ATS), 37-31-2 to the over/under, 7-2 ATS as a home underdog, 23-16 ATS with one day off, 4-4-1 to the over/under as a home underdog and 18-19-2 to the over/under with one day off this season.

Minnesota is 2-8 ATS, 7-3 to the over/under in their last ten games, averaging more than 8 points less at home than on the road, 122.3 points per game in March, 111.7 points per game on one day of rest and 116 points per game against the Warriors.

Golden State Warriors

Whether it was the effect of reintegrating KD and Bogut into the rotation or the outstanding defense and team play by the Spurs, Golden State could not muster enough offense in their 105-111 loss in San Antonio, falling to 47-22 on the season.

The Warriors are led by Stephen Curry scoring 27.9 points per game and Draymond Green with 7.4 rebounds and 7.0 assists per game.

NBA: Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs
Steph Curry had a solid game against San Antonio and hit his longest field goal of the season in the first quarter.
Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

Golden State is scoring 117.7 points per game (1st of 30), allowing 111.8 points per game (18th of 30), earning a SRS score of 6.00 (2nd of 30), pace factor of 101.0 (10th of 30), offensive rating of 115.8 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 110.0 (15th of 30).

The Dubs are 28-40-1 ATS, 33-36 to the over/under, 16-19 ATS as the away team, 8-13 ATS after a loss, 2-6-1 ATS on no rest, 19-16 to the over/under as the away team, 5-4 to the over/under on no rest, 7-14 to the over/under after a loss and 19-24 to the over/under in conference games this season.

Golden State is 4-6 ATS, 1-9 to the over under in their last ten games, averaging 109.7 points per game in March, 116.6 points per game on no rest and 103.5 points per game against Minnesota this season.

Analysis

The Timberwolves have covered ATS in five straight in Minnesota against the Warriors and two of the last three contests between these teams, and we would recommend staying away from a side in today’s match-up.

The score has finished under the total in the last three games between these teams and in four of their last five contests. While the Wolves have been an over team for most of the season, they score significantly less at home than on the road and have gone under the total in three of their last four games.

Given how the Warriors are on a streak of eight in a row under the total and likely spent after big road games at Houston, Oklahoma City and San Antonio, taken together with their averaging only 103.5 points per game against Minnesota and trending under in games after a loss and on no rest, we are going back to the well one more time and leaning under 229.5 points in tonight’s game.

Poll

What is your best bet for Warriors at Timberwolves on 3/191/19?

This poll is closed

  • 41%
    Warriors -6.5
    (32 votes)
  • 20%
    Timberwolves +6.5
    (16 votes)
  • 12%
    Over 229.5
    (10 votes)
  • 25%
    Under 229.5
    (20 votes)
78 votes total Vote Now