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How will Warriors manage loads as 10.5-point favorites in Memphis?

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Golden State travels to Memphis for the first of a two-game road trip.

NBA: Detroit Pistons at Golden State Warriors
Steph Curry returned from a day of a rest to help the Warriors beat the Pistons on Sunday.
Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

The Golden State Warriors are tied at the top of the Western Conference standings as they enter the final nine games of the season, starting with the Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday.

Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Wednesday March 27, 2019 at 5:00pm PST

Where: FedEx Forum, Memphis, Tennessee

TV: NBC Sports Bay Area

Line: Warriors -10.5, o/u 217

Injuries: Mike Conley (thigh) is questionable, Joakim Noah (knee) is questionable, Kyle Anderson (shoulder), Avery Bradley (shin), C.J. Miles (foot), Jaren Jackson Jr. (thigh) and Dillon Brooks (toe) are all out for the Grizzlies.

Damian Jones (pectoral) is out for the Warriors.

Memphis Grizzlies

Memphis improved to 30-44 with a 115-103 win as 7.5-point underdogs against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday.

The Grizzlies are led by Mike Conley with 20.9 points and 6.4 assists per game and Jaren Jackson Jr. with 4.7 rebounds per game.

NBA: Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies
Mike Conley leads the Grizzlies in points and assists per game.
Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

Memphis is scoring 102.8 points per game (30th of 30), allowing 105.2 points per game (2nd of 30), earning a simple rating system (SRS) score of -1.90 (23rd of 30), pace factor of 96.4 (30th of 30), offensive rating of 105.6 (27th of 30) and defensive rating of 108.0 (9th of 30).

The Grizzlies are 35-38-1 against the spread (ATS), 31-41-2 to the over/under, 11-6 ATS as a home underdog, 25-20 ATS in conference games, 16-13 ATS after a win and 10-6-1 to the over/under as a home underdog this season.

Memphis is 7-3 ATS, 7-3 to the over/under in their last ten games, averaging almost seven more points per game after the All-Star break compared to before, 111.1 points per game in March and 113.5 points per game against the Warriors this season.

Golden State Warriors

Golden State got back in the win column and improved to 50-23 with their 121-114 win over the Detroit Pistons on Sunday.

The Warriors are led by Stephen Curry scoring 27.8 points per game and Draymond Green with 7.3 rebounds and 6.9 assists per game.

NBA: Detroit Pistons at Golden State Warriors
Draymond Green continues to lead the Warriors in rebounds and assists per game.
Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Golden State is scoring 117.3 points per game (2nd of 30), allowing 111.7 points per game (17th of 30), earning a SRS score of 5.72 (2nd of 30), pace factor of 100.8 (10th of 30), offensive rating of 115.7 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 110.2 (15th of 30).

The Dubs are 30-42-1 ATS, 34-39 to the over/under, 9-9 ATS with 2-3 days off, 17-19 ATS as the away team, 18-12 to the over/under as an away favorite, 26-23 to the over/under after a win and 9-9 to the over/under with 2-3 days off this season.

The Warriors are 6-4 ATS and 1-9 to the over/under in their last ten games, averaging 109.5 points per game in March, 113.1 points per game on 2 days rest and 97.0 points per game against Memphis this season.

Analysis

The Grizzlies have covered the number in three of the last four games these teams have played in Memphis and have recently beaten Oklahoma City and Houston in Grind City, making it hard to feel confident in laying the points here with the Warriors, even more so when considering how many loads might be managed in this contest against a depleted Memphis squad.

In a bizarre twist of fate, the normally defensive Grizzlies have been trending over recently while the typically explosive Warriors just had a streak of eleven games under the total snapped on Sunday.

This is a tough game to call given questions about Mike Conley’s status and how the Warriors might utilize their own roster just before the playoffs. Given how the last five of six games between these teams have gone under the total, taken together with the Warriors recent trend of low scoring games and the Grizzlies’ depleted roster, we lean toward under 217 total points, even more so if Conley does not play.

Poll

What is your best bet for Warriors at Grizzlies on 3/27/19?

This poll is closed

  • 49%
    Warriors -10.5
    (46 votes)
  • 17%
    Memphis +10.5
    (16 votes)
  • 16%
    Over 217
    (15 votes)
  • 17%
    Under 217
    (16 votes)
93 votes total Vote Now