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Will Warriors sweep the Timberwolves, laying 9.5-points in Minnesota?

Golden State will try to sweep the season series against Minnesota on Friday.

NBA: Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies
Steph Curry led his team in points, rebounds and assists in their last win on the road.
Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

The Golden State Warriors have typically prioritized health at this time of the year just before the playoffs, but with only a game lead for the top seed in the Western Conference and only eight games left, the Dubs may still have something to play for as they head to Minnesota to take on the Timberwolves Friday night.

Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Friday March 29, 2019 at 5:00pm PST.

Where: Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota

TV: NBC Sports Bay Area

Line: Warriors -9.5 points, o/u 230

Injuries: Taj Gibson (calf) is doubtful and Luol Deng (Achilles), Derrick Rose (elbow), Jeff Teague (foot) and Robert Covington (knee) are out for the Wolves.

Damion Jones (pectoral) is out for the Warriors.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Minnesota fell to 33-41 on the season with a 111-122 loss at home versus the Los Angeles Clippers and have now lost six of seven games.

The Wolves are led by Karl-Anthony Towns with 24.6 points and 12.2 rebounds per game and Tyus Jones with 4.4 assists per game.

NBA: Los Angeles Clippers at Minnesota Timberwolves
Karl-Anthony Towns leads the Wolves in points and rebounds per game.
Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota is scoring 112.4 points per game (14th of 30), allowing 113.5 points per game (21st of 30), earning a simple rating system (SRS) score of -0.88 (19th of 30), pace factor of 100.1 (15th of 30), offensive rating of 111.5 (11th of 30) and defensive rating of 112.6 (24th of 30).

The Wolves are 35-39 against the spread (ATS), 38-34-2 to the over/under, 7-4 ATS as a home underdog, 17-23 ATS after a loss, 4-14 ATS with 2-3 days off, 5-5-1 to the over/under as a home underdog and 12-6 to the over/under with 2-3 days off this season.

Minnesota is 2-8 ATS, 4-6 to the over/under in their last ten games, averaging more than 7 points less at home than on the road, 119.1 points per game in March, 116.0 points per game on two days of rest and 116.3 points per game against the Warriors.

Golden State Warriors

Golden State covered the number and got their second win in a row with a 118-103 victory at the Grizzlies on Wednesday, improving to 51-23 on the season.

The Warriors are led by Stephen Curry scoring 27.8 points per game and Draymond Green with 7.3 rebounds and 6.9 assists per game.

NBA: Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies
Draymond Green leads the Warriors in rebounds and assists per game.
Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

Golden State is scoring 117.3 points per game (2nd of 30), allowing 111.5 points per game (16th of 30), earning a SRS score of 5.82 (2nd of 30), pace factor of 100.7 (10th of 30), offensive rating of 115.8 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 110.1 (15th of 30).

The Dubs are 31-42-1 ATS, 35-39 to the over/under, 18-19 ATS as the away team, 10-9 ATS with 2-3 days off, 19-12 to the over/under as an away favorite, 10-9 to the over/under with 2-3 days off and 27-23 to the over/under after a win this season.

Golden State is 6-4 ATS, 2-8 to the over under in their last ten games, averaging 108.9 points per game in March, 112.5 points per game with 2 days off and 104.7 points per game against Minnesota this season.

Analysis

Minnesota has a depleted roster and not much to play for at this point in the season and it has shown with their recent losses — both straight up and ATS — and attenuating offensive output, having gone under the total in five of their last six games.

The Warriors have won all three games against the Wolves this season, covering the spread in two of those three, and the total has finished under the number in four in a row between these teams.

With a healthy Warriors team that can still clinch the top seed in the West paired up against the wounded Wolves who are sputtering to the finish line, we expect a season sweep and lean toward the Warriors covering the number in this contest.

Poll

What is your best bet for Warriors at Timberwolves on 3/29/19?

This poll is closed

  • 73%
    Warriors -9.5
    (75 votes)
  • 7%
    Timberwolves +9.5
    (8 votes)
  • 6%
    Over 230
    (7 votes)
  • 11%
    Under 230
    (12 votes)
102 votes total Vote Now