The Golden State Warriors cruised to a fourteen-point halftime lead in Minnesota but squandered that and a late rally by Stephen Curry to finish a point short in overtime at Minnesota and now remain tied for the top seed in the Western Conference as they return home to host the Charlotte Hornets.
Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
When: Sunday March 31st, 2019 at 5:30pm PST
Where: Oracle Arena, Oakland, California
TV: NBA TV, NBC Sports Bay Area
Line: Warriors -12, o/u 229.5
Injuries: Tony Parker (personal) is questionable and Cody Zeller (knee) is out for the Hornets.
Damian Jones (pectoral) is out for the Warriors.
Charlotte fell to 35-40 following a 115-129 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers that snapped a four game winning streak, relegating themselves to remain two games behind the Miami Heat for the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference.
Charlotte is led by Kemba Walker’s 25.2 points and 5.9 assists per game, and Jeremy Lamb with 5.6 rebounds per game.
The Hornets are scoring 110.9 points per game (20th of 30), allowing 111.9 points per game (17th of 30), earning a simple rating system (SRS) score of -1.27 (22nd of 30), pace factor of 99.0 (20th of 30), offensive rating of 111.2 (14th of 30) and defensive rating of 112.1 (22nd of 30).
Charlotte is 34-39-2 against the spread (ATS), 42-32-1 to the over/under, 20-18-2 with one day off, 12-16 ATS as an away underdog, 15-21 ATS as an away team, 23-13-1 to the over/under as an underdog, 16-11-1 to the over/under as an away underdog, 20-18-1 to the over/under after a loss and 20-20 to the over/under with one day off.
The Hornets are 5-5 ATS, 7-3 to the over/under in their last ten games, with four straight games finishing over the total, averaging over five points more on the road compared to home, 113.0 points on Sunday games, 109.8 points per game on one day of rest and 121.0 points per game against the Warriors this season.
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors dropped to 51-24 with their 130-131 overtime loss to the Minnesota TImberwolves on Friday, still tied for first place in the Western Conference with the Denver Nuggets who come to town on Tuesday.
Golden State is led by Stephen Curry scoring 27.9 points per game and Draymond Green with 7.3 rebounds and 6.9 assists per game.
The Warriors are scoring 117.5 points per game (2nd of 30), allowing 111.8 points per game (16th of 30), earning a SRS score of 5.72 (2nd of 30), pace factor of 100.8 (10th of 30), offensive rating of 115.7 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 110.2 (15th of 30).
The Dubs are 31-43-1 ATS, 36-39 to the over/under, 18-25 ATS with one day off, 13-22-1 ATS as a home favorite, 9-14 ATS after a loss, 19-24 to the over/under after a loss, 15-22 to the over/under as the home team and 8-15 to the over/under after a loss this season.
Golden State is 5-5 ATS, 3-7 to the over under in their last ten games, including three straight over the total, averaging 110.6 points per game in March, 113.3 points on Sunday games, 110.8 points per game with a day off and 110.0 points per game against Charlotte this season.
The Warriors covered 8.5-points in Charlotte at the end of February and in four of the last five games between these teams, but we would caution against laying this big number against a Hornets team that is still trying for a playoff spot at a time of the season that the Dubs might prioritize health.
Golden State has the motivation to keep the top seed in their conference and perhaps would also like to get the taste of that last loss out their mouths, and we anticipate some spirited play from teams that have been trending over in three straight, and lean over 229.5 points in this contest.
What is your best bet for Warriors vs. Hornets on 3/31/19?
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