clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Is 8-points too many for Warriors to lay, even against the slumping Celtics?

New, comments

Golden State returns home as eight-point favorites to face Kyrie Irving and the Boston Celtics.

NBA: Golden State Warriors at Philadelphia 76ers
Kevin Durant had a big game against the Sixers and will now host Kyrie Irving and the Celtics.
Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

The Golden State Warriors were able to grind out a road-win against a Philadelphia 76ers team that was playing without Joel Embiid and will return home to face another Eastern Conference team that has given them trouble in the Boston Celtics.

Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Tuesday March 5th, 2019 at 7:30pm PST.

Where: Oracle Arena, Oakland, California

TV: TNT

Line: Warriors -8, o/u 229.5

Injuries: Klay Thompson (knee) is out, Kevon Looney (pelvis) is questionable and Damian Jones (pectoral) is out for the Warriors.

Boston Celtics

Boston fell to 38-26 following their 115-104 home loss to the Houston Rockets and have now dropped five of their last six and seven of their last ten games.

The Celtics are led by Kyrie Irving with 23.4 points and 6.9 assists per game, and Al Horford with 6.8 rebounds per game.

NBA: Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics
Kyrie Irving leads the Celtics in points and assists per game but has been in the news lately for his perceived unhappiness.
Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Boston is scoring 112.0 points per game (17th of 30), allowing 106.8 points per game (6th of 30), earning a simple rating system (SRS) score of 4.56 (5th of 30), pace factor of 99.2 (19th of 30), offensive rating of 112.1 (10th of 30) and defensive rating of 106.9 (5th of 30).

The Celtics are 31-32-1 against the spread (ATS), 35-29 to the over/under, 5-7 ATS as an underdog, 10-15 ATS after a loss, 5-5 to the over/under as an away underdog and 12-13 to the over/under after a loss this season.

Boston has gone 4-6 ATS, 4-6 to the over/under in their last ten games, and have averaged 104.8 points on Tuesday games, their lowest for any day of the week.

Golden State Warriors

Golden State improved to 44-19 for the season with their 120-117 squeaker in Philadelphia, finishing 2-2 on their most recent road trip.

The Warriors are led by Stephen Curry scoring 28.4 points per game and Draymond Green with 7.4 rebounds and 7.1 assists per game.

NBA: Golden State Warriors at Philadelphia 76ers
Draymond Green leads the Warriors in assists and rebounds per game and still never goes down without a fight.
Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Golden State is scoring 118.6 points per game (1st of 30), allowing 112.1 points per game (17th of 30), earning a SRS score of 6.39 (2nd of 30), pace factor of 101.0 (10th of 30), offensive rating of 116.5 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 110.2 (16th of 30).

The Dubs are now last in the NBA in terms of percentage of games covering the number, 25-37-1 ATS, 33-30 to the over/under, 11-19-1 ATS as the home team and 14-17 to the over/under as the home team this season.

Golden State is 1-9 ATS, 4-6 to the over/under in their last ten games, averaging 107.3 points on Tuesday games though their average scoring after the All-Star break is up to 116.2 from 111.7.

Analysis

Even though Boston has been sliding, Kyrie Irving and the Celtics have been tough outs for the Warriors, winning two of the last three contests between these two teams at Oracle; and the Celtics have covered seven of the last nine times they have met, and we will continue to caution anyone from taking the Warriors ATS from now until the playoffs.

With the last six games between these teams going under the number and both teams trending 4-6 to the over/under in their last ten and averaging fewer points on Tuesday games, we lean toward under 229.5 total points in this contest.

Poll

What is your best bet for Warriors vs. Celtics on 3/5/19?

This poll is closed

  • 24%
    Warriors -8
    (34 votes)
  • 43%
    Celtics +8
    (60 votes)
  • 8%
    Over 229.5
    (11 votes)
  • 23%
    Under 229.5
    (32 votes)
137 votes total Vote Now