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Will the Warriors bounce back, hold off the Nuggets, laying 6.5-points at home?

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Golden State will try for a better home-performance against the Denver Nuggets on Friday night.

NBA: Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors
The Warriors will need to compose themselves if they want to play better at home and hold off the Nuggets.
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The Golden State Warriors could lose sole possession of the top seed in the Western Conference if they don’t get their act together, starting with the current number two seed Denver Nuggets on Friday.

Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Friday March 8, 2019 at 7:30pm

Where: Oracle Arena, Oakland, California

TV: ESPN

Line: Warriors -6.5, o/u 234

Injuries: Trey Lyles (hamstring) and Michael Porter Jr. (back) are out for the Nuggets.

Klay Thompson (knee) is probable, Shaun Livingston (neck) is probable, Kevon Looney (pelvis) is probable and Damian Jones (pectoral) is out for the Warriors.

Denver Nuggets

Denver improved to 43-21 with a 115-99 win at a Los Angeles Lakers team in a free fall, but have lost three of their last four games.

The Nuggets are led by one of the most dominant yet still underrated players in the NBA in Nikola Jokic, who is nearly averaging a triple-double with 20.5 points, 10.8 rebounds and 7.7 assists per game.

NBA: Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers
Nikola Jokic is one of the most dominant players in the NBA.
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Denver is scoring 112.1 points per game (15th of 30), allowing 107.0 points per game (7th of 30), earning a SRS score of 4.91 (5th of 30), pace factor of 98.1 (27th of 30), offensive rating of 113.9 (3rd of 30) and defensive rating of 108.8 (11th of 30).

The Nuggets are 35-29 against the spread (ATS), 28-35-1 to the over/under, 13-18 ATS as the away team, 7-7 ATS as an away underdog, 25-17 ATS after a win, 5-9 to the over/under as an away underdog, 11-19-1 to the over/under as an away team and 6-11 to the over/under as an underdog this season.

Denver is 6-4 ATS, 1-9 to the over/under in its last ten games and averaging 4.2 points more on the road than at home this season.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors fell to 44-20 after getting humiliated at home by the score of 95-128 to the Boston Celtics and have now lost three of their last four.

Golden State is led by Stephen Curry scoring 28.3 points per game and Draymond Green with 7.3 rebounds and 7.1 assists per game.

NBA: Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors
Steph Curry scored 23 points in the loss to Boston.
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Golden State is scoring 118.2 points per game (1st of 30), allowing 112.4 points per game (19th of 30), earning a SRS score of 5.86 (2nd of 30), pace factor of 101.2 (10th of 30), offensive rating of 116.1 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 110.4 (17th of 30).

The Dubs remain last in the NBA in terms of percentage of games covering the number, 25-38-1 ATS, 33-31 to the over/under, 6-13 ATS after a loss, 11-20-1 ATS as the home team, 7-12 to the over/under after a loss and 14-18 to the over/under as the home team this season.

Golden State is 1-9 ATS, 4-6 to the over/under in their last ten games, averaging 105.4 points on Friday games and 105.5 points against Denver this season.

Analysis

With Klay Thompson, Shaun Livingston and Kevon Looney being probable for this game, taken together with their last game being an embarrassing home loss, we expect the Dubs to bounce back with a vengeance, but continue to urge caution in taking the Warriors ATS during this part of the season.

Denver has straight up won and covered three of the last five contests between these teams, with three of their last five match-ups going under the total.

With Western Conference supremacy on the line, we expect a more tightly contested, physical game between these teams that may feature more motivated defense. Given Denver’s defense, slower pace and recent strong under trend, taken together with the Dubs averaging about 105 points on Fridays and against Denver, we lean toward under 234 total points in this game.

Poll

What is your best bet for Warriors vs. Nuggets on 3/8/19?

This poll is closed

  • 43%
    Warriors -6.5
    (62 votes)
  • 23%
    Nuggets +6.5
    (34 votes)
  • 16%
    Over 234
    (24 votes)
  • 16%
    Under 234
    (23 votes)
143 votes total Vote Now