clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Will Warriors make it 5 straight under the total, laying 17-points to a Suns team on no rest?

New, comments

The Warriors are huge favorites as they host a Suns team that will be playing the second game of a back-to-back on Sunday.

NBA: Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors
Klay Thompson returned like a boss in the Warriors’ win over the Nuggets on Friday.
Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

The Golden State Warriors got up to play the Denver Nuggets but will they have the same motivation when they play the Phoenix Suns on Sunday evening?

Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Sunday March 10, 2019 at 5:30pm PST.

Where: Oracle Arena, Oakland, California

TV: NBC Sports Bay Area, NBA TV

Line: Warriors -17, o/u 235

Injuries: T.J. Warren (ankle) is out for the Suns.

Andrew Bogut (personal) is questionable and Damian Jones (pectoral) is out for the Warriors.

Phoenix Suns

The Suns fell to 15-52 with a 120-127 loss at the Portland Trailblazers, but have won three of their last four games.

Not including their game in Portland, Phoenix has been led by Devin Booker with 24.9 points and 6.6 assists per game and DeAndre Ayton with 10.4 rebounds per game.

NBA: New York Knicks at Phoenix Suns
Devin Booker leads the Suns in points and assists per game.
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Not including the Portland game, the Suns have been scoring 106.7 points per game (24th of 30), allowing 115.8 points per game (28th of 30), earning a simple rating system (SRS) score of -8.37 (29th of 30), pace factor of 100.3 (12th of 30), offensive rating of 105.3 (27th of 30) and defensive rating of 114.3 (29th of 30).

Phoenix is 30-37 against the spread (ATS), 29-37-1 to the over/under, 6-4 ATS on no rest, 13-20 ATS as an away underdog, 4-5-1 to the over/under on no rest and 14-17-1 to the over/under as an away underdog this season.

The Suns are 5-5 ATS, 4-6 to the over/under in their last ten games, and had been averaging (prior to Portland game) 110.0 points in March, 3 points less per game post-All Star Game (ASG) compared to pre-ASG and 124 points against Golden State so far this season.

Golden State Warriors

Golden State improved to 45-20 with their 122-105 win over the Denver Nuggets, easily covering the 6.5 point spread and creating some more separation at the top of the Western Conference.

The Warriors are led by Stephen Curry scoring 28.1 points per game and Draymond Green with 7.4 rebounds and 7.1 assists per game.

NBA: Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors
Steph Curry hit some nice shots against the Nuggets.
Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Golden State is scoring 118.3 points per game (1st of 30), allowing 112.3 points per game (18th of 30), earning a SRS score of 6.08 (2nd of 30), pace factor of 101.2 (10th of 30), offensive rating of 116.2 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 110.3 (16th of 30).

The Dubs are tied for last in the NBA in terms of percentage of games covering the number, 26-38-1 ATS, 33-32 to the over/under, 12-20-1 ATS as the home team, 26-18 to the over/under after a win and 14-19 to the over/under as the home team this season.

The Warriors are 2-8 ATS, 3-7 to the over/under in their last ten games, and are averaging 110.3 points on one day rest and 106.3 points against the Suns so far this season.

Analysis

Even though Golden State has beaten the Suns in eighteen straight games and Phoenix will be playing in the second game of a back-to-back, we don’t see a lot of value in laying this gigantic spread at this juncture of the Warriors’ season, after a big win.

The Suns’ scoring is down in March and both teams have been trending under in their last ten games and will be playing on one day and no rest. Two of the last three contests between these teams have gone under and the Dubs have gone under the total in four straight and are averaging 106.3 points per game against the Suns, leading us to lean toward under 235 points in this game.

Poll

What is your best bet for Warriors vs. Suns on 3/10/19?

This poll is closed

  • 32%
    Warriors -17
    (55 votes)
  • 22%
    Suns +17
    (38 votes)
  • 20%
    Over 235
    (34 votes)
  • 23%
    Under 235
    (40 votes)
167 votes total Vote Now