Will Warriors gain separation from Nuggets, laying 8-points at Oracle?

The Golden State Warriors gained a game lead atop the Western Conference standings on Sunday and will look to increase their lead when they take on the second-place Denver Nuggets on Tuesday night.

Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Tuesday April 2nd, 2019 at 7:30pm

Where: Oracle Arena, Oakland, California

TV: TNT

Line: Warriors -8, o/u 222

Injuries: Jamal Murray (ankle) is probable and Michael Porter Jr. (back) is out for the Nuggets.

Quinn Cook (personal) and Kevin Durant (personal) are probable and Damian Jones (pectoral) is out for the Warriors.

Denver Nuggets

Denver dropped to 51-25 and a game back from the number one seed with their 90-95 loss at home to the Washington Wizards, and have lost three of their last five games.

The Nuggets are led by Nikola Jokic, who is nearly averaging a triple-double with 20.3 points, 10.9 rebounds and 7.4 assists per game.

Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Denver is scoring 110.9 points per game (19th of 30), allowing 106.7 points per game (6th of 30), earning a SRS score of 4.11 (6th of 30), pace factor of 97.7 (26th of 30), offensive rating of 113.1 (5th of 30) and defensive rating of 108.9 (10th of 30).

The Nuggets are 39-37 against the spread (ATS), 31-44-1 to the over/under, 16-22 ATS as the away team, 9-9 ATS as an away underdog, 11-13 ATS after a loss, 6-12 to the over/under as an away underdog, 13-24-1 to the over/under as an away team, 10-14 to the over/under after a loss and 7-14 to the over/under as an underdog this season.

Denver is 3-7 ATS, 2-8 to the over/under in its last ten games and averaging 5.1 points more on the road than at home this season, 105.7 points per game over the last month, 108.1 points per game on one day rest and 105.3 points per game against the Warriors this season.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors improved to 51-25 and claimed sole possession of the Western Conference’s top seed with their 137-90 throttling of the Charlotte Hornets on Sunday.

Golden State is led by Stephen Curry scoring 27.9 points per game and Draymond Green with 7.3 rebounds and 6.9 assists per game.

The Warriors are scoring 117.7 points per game (2nd of 30), allowing 111.5 points per game (16th of 30), earning a SRS score of 6.25 (2nd of 30), pace factor of 100.7 (10th of 30), offensive rating of 116.1 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 110.0 (15th of 30).

The Dubs are 32-43-1 ATS, 36-40 to the over/under, 19-25 ATS with one day off, 14-22-1 ATS as a home favorite, 22-28-1 ATS after a win, 28-23 to the over/under after a win, 15-23 to the over/under as the home team and 19-25 to the over/under with one day off this season.

Golden State is 6-4 ATS, 3-7 to the over under in their last ten games, averaging 109.1 points per game over the last month, 110.3 points per game with a day off and 120.7 points per game against Denver this season.

Analysis

Since their two point loss in Denver near the beginning of the season in October, the Warriors have crushed the Nuggets by 31 and 17 points, covering the number with ease in the last two contests between these teams.

With only six games to play in the regular season, one might expect the Dubs to rest up before their playoff run but as evidenced by their annihilation of Charlotte on Sunday, Golden State appears to be motivated to lock up the number one seed and can go a long way towards doing so against the Nuggets on Tuesday.

We see the Dubs wanting to pull two games ahead at the top of the Western Conference and put the Nuggets in their place. The Nuggets are likely to be motivated for the same reason and coming off of a loss, but they will be in trouble if the Warriors treat this match-up like a playoff game. So if we’re playing, we’re laying the eight points with the Warriors.