Will Warriors crush the Clippers again, laying 12.5-points in game 1 at Oracle?

The Golden State Warriors have reached the most important part of the season, where questions about motivation and effort go out the window, obfuscated by the singular goal of winning a third straight NBA title.

The Dubs’ path to glory starts with the Los Angeles Clippers on Saturday at Oracle. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Saturday April 13, 2019 at 5:00pm

Where: Oracle Arena, Oakland, California

TV: ABC

Line: Warriors -12.5, o/u 232

Injuries: Stephen Curry (ankle) is probable, Shaun Livingston (knee) and Draymond Green (knee) are questionable and Damian Jones (pectoral) is out for the Warriors.

Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers finished with a 48-34 record following their 143-137 overtime win against the Utah Jazz after losing three in a row.

Los Angeles is led by Lou Williams with 20.0 points and 5.4 assists per game and Montrezl Harrell with 6.5 rebounds per game.

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The Clippers are scoring 115.1 points per game (5th of 30), allowing 114.3 points per game (25th of 30), earning a simple rating system (SRS) score of 1.09 (13th of 30), pace factor of 101.7 (7th of 30), offensive rating of 112.4 (9th of 30) and defensive rating of 111.5 (21st of 30).

Los Angeles is 45-36-1 against the spread (ATS), 44-37-1 to the over/under, 13-13-1 ATS as an away underdog, 8-10 ATS with 2-3 days off, 26-20 ATS after a win, 9-8-1 to the over/under with 2-3 days off, 25-21-1 to the over/under after a win and 9-18 to the over/under as an away underdog this season.

The Clips are 4-6 ATS, failing to cover in four straight, 7-3 to the over/under in their last ten games, averaging 131.3 points per game in April, 116.6 points per game on two days of rest and 111.5 points per game against the Warriors this season.

Golden State Warriors

Golden State had the top seed wrapped up before their meaningless, 117-132 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies, finishing with a 57-25 regular season record.

The Warriors are led by Stephen Curry scoring 27.3 points per game and Draymond Green with 7.3 rebounds and 6.9 assists per game.

Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

The Warriors are scoring 117.7 points per game (2nd of 30), allowing 111.2 points per game (16th of 30), earning a SRS score of 6.42 (2nd of 30), pace factor of 100.9 (10th of 30), offensive rating of 115.9 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 109.5 (13th of 30).

The Dubs are 35-46-1 ATS, 38-44 to the over/under, 16-24-1 ATS as the home team, 10-9 ATS with 2-3 days off, 10-9 to the over/under with 2-3 days off and 16-24 to the over/under as a home favorite.

Golden State is 5-5 ATS, 5-5 to the over/under in their last ten games, averaging 107.5 points per game in April, 112.5 points per game with two days rest and 122.0 points per game against the Clips this season.

Analysis

The Warriors smashed the Clippers in the final regular season game at Oracle, covering the number in two straight contests between these teams with both games going under the total.

Prior to the last two times they played each other, the Clippers had covered the spread in four straight against Golden State and four straight at Oracle, with nine in a row going over the total.

Danilo Gallinari and Patrick Beverley did not play in the Clippers’ loss to the Warriors on Sunday, a game that finished with 235 points. Having them back in the line-up should lead to more offense for the Clippers.

Though the Warriors might have a little less pressure in this first round match-up compared to who they might meet in the second round, the Clippers have been sliding ATS and we expect the Dubs to come out in full force and anticipate the Warriors covering the number.

And given how the Clippers have been trending over and both teams being rested, we lean toward over 232 points in game one of these quarterfinals.