Have Warriors broken the Clippers’ spirit and chances to cover 13.5-points in game 2?

The Golden State Warriors will look to continue the momentum of their 121-104 win into game two on Monday evening.

Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Monday April 15th, 2019 at 7:30pm

Where: Oracle Arena, Oakland, California

TV: TNT

Line: Warriors -13.5, o/u 230

Injuries: Damian Jones (pectoral) is out for the Warriors.

Los Angeles Clippers

Los Angeles was led by Montrezl Harrell with 26 points, Danilo Gallinari with 8 rebounds and 3 steals, Lou Williams with 9 assists and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with 3 blocks in their game one loss.

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The Clippers finished the regular season scoring 115.1 points per game (5th of 30), allowing 114.3 points per game (25th of 30), earning a simple rating system (SRS) score of 1.09 (13th of 30), pace factor of 101.7 (7th of 30), offensive rating of 112.4 (9th of 30) and defensive rating of 111.5 (21st of 30).

Los Angeles is 45-37-1 against the spread (ATS), 44-38-1 to the over/under, 13-14-1 ATS as an away underdog, 28-19-1 ATS with one day off, 19-15 ATS after a loss, 26-22 to the over/under with one day off, 19-15 to the over/under after a loss and 9-19 to the over/under as an away underdog this season.

The Clips are 4-6 ATS, failing to cover in five straight, 7-3 to the over/under in their last ten games, averaging 113.4 points per game on one day of rest this season.

Golden State Warriors

Golden State was led by Stephen Curry with 38 points, 15 rebounds and 7 assists and Andre Iguodala with 2 steals and 3 blocks in game one.

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The Warriors finished the regular season scoring 117.7 points per game (2nd of 30), allowing 111.2 points per game (16th of 30), earning a SRS score of 6.42 (2nd of 30), pace factor of 100.9 (10th of 30), offensive rating of 115.9 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 109.5 (13th of 30).

The Dubs are 36-46-1 ATS, 38-45 to the over/under, 17-24-1 ATS as the home team, 22-26 ATS with one day off, 25-31-1 ATS after a win, 30-27 to the over/under after a win, 19-29 to the over/under with one day off and 16-25 to the over/under as a home favorite this season.

Golden State is 6-4 ATS, 4-6 to the over/under in their last ten games, averaging 109.4 points per game with one day of rest this season.

Analysis

The Warriors have covered ATS in three in a row against the Clippers, with each of the last three games going under the posted total.

The key to the Warriors recent dominance over the Clippers has been defense as they have held the Clips to 104 or less points in their last three meetings.

Defense wins championships and has been a key component to the Warriors’ title runs. While the Warriors defense this regular season has been less intense compared to years past, they have the ability to turn it on in the playoffs, as they did last year, and their defensive intensity has contributed to the late season trend of games finishing under the total.

As evidenced by Kevin Durant’s face as he stood over Patrick Beverley, the Warriors mean business and appear poised to step on their opponents throats with not so nice intentions.

Is there any reason to believe that the Dubs let up in this spot or that the Clippers will reach down deep for that extra gear to keep game two close?

Warriors in the playoffs are a different animal and we see no reason for the outcome of game two to be significantly different from the outcome of game one, and with the Clippers’ recent slide ATS, if we’re playing, we’re laying the 13.5 points with the Dubs.

Based on the aforementioned defensive intensity and the trends of the Dubs at home, Clips as a road dog, both teams playing on one day of rest and last three against each other going under the total, we lean toward under 230 points in game two.