The Golden State Warriors looked to be cruising to an easy win when they took their foot off the gas, letting lackadaisical defense and lazy turnovers lead to one of the most embarrassing playoff collapses of all time.
How will the Dubs respond to a renewed and hopeful Los Angeles Clippers team in LA for game three?
Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
When: Thursday April 18th, 2019 at 7:30pm PST
Where: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California
Line: Warriors -8.5, o/u 237
Injuries: DeMarcus Cousins (quad) and Damian Jones (pectoral) are out for the Warriors.
Los Angeles Clippers
Give them their due credit, even when Los Angeles was down by 31 in the third quarter, they continued to play with intensity and refused to lay down or get careless, ultimately making the Warriors pay for a lapse in discipline.
Now the Clippers have freshly brewed motivation and hope heading back to LA in a series that everyone thought would be a foregone conclusion or sweep.
Los Angeles is led by Lou Williams averaging 30.5 points and 10.0 assists per game and Montrezl Harrell with 7.5 rebounds per game in the playoffs.
The Clippers are scoring 119.5 points and allowing 126.0 points per game so far in the playoffs.
Los Angeles is 46-37-1 against the spread (ATS), 45-38-1 to the over/under, 26-21-1 ATS after a win, 3-8 ATS as a home underdog, 8-11 ATS with 2-3 days off, 6-5 to the over/under as a home underdog, 25-22-1 to the over/under after a win and 9-9 to the over/under with 2-3 days off this season.
The Clips are 4-6 ATS, 7-3 to the over/under in their last ten games, averaging 116.6 points per game on two days of rest this regular season.
Golden State Warriors
The Golden State Warriors and their fans may have taken it for granted that the Dubs can flip the switch come playoff time, no matter what problems with chemistry, attitude or motivation they may have displayed during the regular season.
But the mental toughness and resiliency to maintain championship caliber play and mindset for five straight seasons may finally be taking a toll, as evidenced by more frequent lapses during this past regular season and the Warriors’ historic 131-135 collapse on Monday night.
The Warriors are led by Stephen Curry with 33.5 points and 8.8 rebounds per game and Draymond Green with 8.0 assists per game in the playoffs.
Golden State is scoring 126.0 points and allowing 119.5 points per game in the playoffs.
The Dubs are 36-47-1 ATS, 39-45 to the over/under, 11-9 ATS with 2-3 days off, 11-14 ATS after a loss, 15-20 ATS as an away favorite, 21-14 to the over/under as an away favorite, 10-10 to the over/under with 2-3 days of rest and 8-17 to the over/under after a loss this season.
Golden State is 5-5 ATS, 4-6 to the over/under in their last ten games, averaging 112.5 points per game with two days of rest this regular season.
One might argue that the Warriors’ chemistry and season took a turn for the worse when Golden State played the Clippers at Staples Center in November of this season, a Warrior loss in overtime that was overshadowed by Draymond Green questioning Kevin Durant about his commitment to the team, a question that unfortunately still hangs over this organization and its players like a thunderstorm on the horizon.
Now the Dubs have to regroup and face a Clippers team that has newfound hope and motivation, revitalized by their surreal comeback against the defending champs.
At this point of the season and in this upcoming contest, we could disregard previous stats and trends and consider the character of this Warriors team to determine how to bet this game.
If you believe that this Warriors team still has the championship mindset and mental toughness to move past that humiliating meltdown and loss of DeMarcus Cousins, you should expect the Warriors to rebound with a vengeance and easily cover 8.5 points in game three.
But if that meltdown is another sign of a tenuous and fragile balance of this team’s collective psyche, one that has shown surprising lapses in composure, effort and discipline more often this season than any of the previous four, Golden State could be in for quite a challenge in these playoffs.
What is your best bet for Warriors at Clippers game 3 on 4/18/19?
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