The Golden State Warriors got caught looking ahead and taking a win for granted in another shameful home performance that lacked the motivation of a team that reveres its final season at Oracle Arena.
The Dubs will need to sustain earnest and intense effort and humility in their defensive attitude if they want to finish the Los Angeles Clippers on Friday night.
Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
When: Friday April 26, 2019 at 7:00pm PST
Where: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California
Line: Warriors -10, o/u 232.5
Injuries: DeMarcus Cousins (quadricep) and Damian Jones (pectoral) are out for the Warriors.
Los Angeles Clippers
Success in the playoffs can come down to which team is hungrier and the Clippers were unequivocally the hungrier team in the Warriors’ house for most of game five and the second half of game two.
The Clippers are led by Lou Williams with 24.4 points and 7.8 assists per game, Ivica Zubac with 7.0 rebounds per game, Danilo Gallinari with 1.2 steals per game and Patrick Beverley with 0.8 block per game in these playoffs.
Los Angeles is 48-38-1 against the spread (ATS), 47-39-1 to the over/under, 26-22-1 ATS after a win, 4-9 ATS as a home underdog, 29-19-1 ATS with one day off, 7-6 to the over/under as a home underdog, 26-22-1 to the over/under after a win and 27-22 to the over/under with one day off this season.
The Clippers are scoring 115.6 points and allowing 123.6 points per game with an offensive rating of 113.5 and pace factor of 101.9 in this series, and 3-2 ATS, 3-2 to the over/under in the playoffs so far.
Golden State Warriors
In a shameful display of hubris, Golden State admitted that they assumed Houston would be their second round opponent and didn’t want to let the Rockets get more rest than the Warriors, even before playing the Clippers in game five, and their pride surely did come before and possibly led to their fall.
The Warriors are led by Kevin Durant with 32.0 points and 1.6 steals per game, Andrew Bogut with 7.8 rebounds per game, Draymond Green with 7.4 assists and 1.4 blocks per game in these playoffs.
The Dubs are 37-49-1 ATS, 41-46 to the over/under, 12-14 ATS after a loss, 16-21 ATS as an away favorite, 22-27 ATS on one day rest, 20-29 to the over/under on one day rest, 22-15 to the over/under as an away favorite and 9-17 to the over/under after a loss this season.
Golden State is scoring 123.6 points and allowing 115.6 points per game with an offensive rating of 121.3 and pace factor of 101.9 in this series, and 2-3 ATS, 3-2 to the over/under in the playoffs so far.
Defense wins championships and defense can be significantly affected by attitude, and if the Warriors don’t humble themselves and prioritize a diligent attitude for each and every moment of this game and the duration of the playoffs, the Dubs’ chances of a championship will attenuate.
Klay Thompson disclosed that the Warriors may have regressed into the arrogance of looking ahead, the same sloppy, lackadaisical spirit that has haunted ugly losses all too often this final season at Oracle.
Were the Warriors looking ahead to the Rockets too much? Klay: “Yup. Started with me. I was. I thought we’d come out and win tonight. Sometimes life doesn’t go as planned.”— Anthony Slater (@anthonyVslater) April 25, 2019
The Warriors have obviously played better on the road than at home this season, and they have typically bounced back with a vengeance after their embarrassing home losses this past year.
We expect Golden State to be filled with piss and vinegar in game six and win the game but their inconsistency, taken together with the Clippers’ resiliency and hungry, scrappy efforts, makes it hard to feel confident laying the big number on the road.
But the Warriors have led by at least four points at the end of every first quarter of this series, having led by nine, eight, seventeen (in LA), ten (in LA) and four points at the end of each first quarter, respectively.
Based on this trend and anticipating the Dubs to be chomping at the bit to get the taste of that sour loss out their mouths, we are taking the Warriors -4 in the first quarter and lean -6.5 in the first half. Considering the Clippers’ tenacity and a tendency for teams facing elimination at home to go over, we lean toward over 232.5 total points in this contest.
What is your best bet for Warriors at Clippers in game 6 on 4/26/19?
This poll is closed
Warriors (1Q) -4
Clippers (1Q) +4
Warriors (1H) -6.5
Clippers (1H) +6.5