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What tone will Warriors set in game 1 at home, laying 5.5-points to the Rockets?

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Golden State opens the Western Conference semi-finals against Houston at Oracle Arena on Sunday.

Golden State Warriors v Los Angeles Clippers - Game Six
Draymond Green had a triple-double in the Warriors’ game six win.

Though it might have taken longer than they would have preferred, the Golden State Warriors were able to dispatch the Los Angeles Clippers, leading to the long-anticipated playoff match-up with the Houston Rockets.

Here we discuss the betting odds and analysis for game one.

When: Sunday April 28, 2019 at 12:30 PST

Where: Oracle Arena, Oakland, California

TV: ABC

Line: Warriors -5.5, o/u 225

Injuries: Terrence Jones (illness) is out for the Rockets.

Stephen Curry (ankle) and Klay Thompson (ankle) are questionable, and DeMarcus Cousins (quadricep) and Damian Jones (pectoral) are out for the Warriors

Houston Rockets

The Houston Rockets took care of the Utah Jazz in five games and have made it no secret that they want to face the Warriors.

The Rockets are led by James Harden with 27.8 points and 8.0 rebounds per game, Clint Capela with 10.6 rebounds and 1.8 blocks per game and Chris Paul with 2.8 steals per game in the playoffs so far.

Utah Jazz v Houston Rockets - Game Five
James Harden leads the Rockets in points and assists per game in the playoffs.
Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images

Houston is 43-41-1 against the spread (ATS), 36-45-6 to the over/under, 8-7 ATS as an away underdog, 29-25-2 ATS after a win, 10-8 ATS with 2-3 days off, 7-9-2 to the over/under with 2-3 days off, 22-29-5 to the over/under after a win and 5-10 to the over/under as an away underdog this season.

The Rockets have an offensive rating of 108.5, defensive rating of 99.2, pace factor of 98.6 and are 3-2 ATS and 0-4-1 to the over/under in the playoffs.

Golden State Warriors

Kevin Durant played like a back-to-back Finals MVP and Golden State rode another one of his clutch playoff performances to a series win and will need more of that if they want to beat the Rockets in the Western Conference semis.

The Warriors are led by Kevin Durant with 35.0 points and 1.5 steals per game and Draymond Green with 7.8 rebounds, 7.8 assists and 1.8 blocks per game in these playoffs.

Golden State Warriors v Los Angeles Clippers - Game Six
Kevin Durant was the MVP of the Warriors’ first round series.

The Dubs are 38-49-1 ATS, 42-46 to the over/under, 25-31 ATS after a win, 17-25-1 ATS as a home favorite, 23-27 ATS on one day rest, 21-29 to the over/under on one day rest, 18-25 to the over/under as a home favorite and 32-28-2 to the over/under after a win this season.

Golden State has an offensive rating of 121.0, defensive rating of 111.5, pace factor of 102.9, and are 3-3 ATS, 4-2 to the over/under in the playoffs so far.

Analysis

Let’s be honest, the Rockets owned the Warriors in the regular season, going 3-1 both straight up and against the spread. And since the Rockets pushed the Warriors to seven games in last year’s Western Conference Finals, some prognosticators think this is the year for the Rockets get past the Dubs:

Yes the Warriors have played poorly against the Rockets and yes they have been terrible at home, especially in the first home game back from a road trip.

But this Warriors team has typically played its best with its back against the wall, in situations where they are doubted, and one has to wonder when the last time was that they lost three straight playoff games at home and how motivated they will be to get the taste of two straight playoff losses at home out their mouths.

We anticipate a physical match-up with Houston taking its time with the ball and playing intense defense, a formula that led to three of four regular season contests between these teams going under the total, and six of their seven playoff games last season going under the total, and we’ve taken the full game under 226 points.

We have not taken a side but if we do, we anticipate the Warriors to be highly motivated to set a new tone against the Rockets this season and at home in these playoffs and would lean toward Warriors -2 in the first quarter.

Poll

What is your best bet for Warriors vs. Rockets in game 1 on 4/28/19?

This poll is closed

  • 38%
    Warriors -5.5
    (68 votes)
  • 29%
    Rockets +5.5
    (53 votes)
  • 9%
    Over 225
    (17 votes)
  • 10%
    Under 225
    (18 votes)
  • 2%
    Warriors (1Q) -2
    (5 votes)
  • 2%
    Rockets (1Q) +2
    (4 votes)
  • 2%
    Warriors (1H) -3
    (4 votes)
  • 4%
    Clippers (1H) +3
    (8 votes)
177 votes total Vote Now