Will Warriors keep their edge as 5.5-point favorites over Rockets in game 2 at Oracle?

The Golden State Warriors were able to grind out a narrow, 104-100 victory over a disgruntled Houston Rockets team in game one of the Western Conference semi-finals.

Both teams will have one night to rest, and no use for crying over spilled milk before meeting again in Oracle for game two on Tuesday evening. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Tuesday April 30, 2019 at 7:30pm PST

Where: Oracle Arena, Oakland, California

TV: TNT

Line: Warriors -5.5, o/u 218

Injuries: Austin Rivers (illness) is questionable and Terrence Jones (illness) is out for the Rockets.

DeMarcus Cousins (quadricep) and Damian Jones (pectoral) are out for the Warriors.

Houston Rockets

In a comically ironic example of the pot calling the kettle, James Harden made an impassioned plea to be treated fairly by officials, part of the Rockets organization’s broader efforts to feel sorry for themselves and blame their shortcomings on a perception that the refs have given the Warriors favorable treatment when they have played each other.

The Rockets are led by James Harden with 29.0 points and 7.7 assists per game, Clint Capela with 9.8 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game and Chris Paul with 2.8 steals per game in the playoffs so far.

Houston is 44-41-1 against the spread (ATS), 36-46-6 to the over/under, 9-7 ATS as an away underdog, 14-15-1 ATS after a loss, 26-25-3 ATS with one day off, 19-34-1 to the over/under with one day off, 13-16-1 to the over/under after a loss and 5-11 to the over/under as an away underdog this season.

The Rockets have an offensive rating of 107.8, defensive rating of 100.6, pace factor of 98.2 and are 4-2 ATS and 0-5-1 to the over/under in the playoffs.

Golden State Warriors

If this is indeed Kevin Durant’s final season with Golden State, the Warriors are making sure they get as much as they signed up for as possible in the form of more clutch playoff scoring from the slim reaper.

When Draymond Green approaches a triple-double, he and the Warriors are usually playing with defensive intensity and win, and Golden State’s defense holding the Rockets to a hundred points was a major reason they won.

The Warriors are led by Kevin Durant with 35.0 points and 1.4 steals per game and Draymond Green with 8.0 rebounds, 8.0 assists and 1.7 blocks per game in these playoffs.

Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

The Dubs are 38-50-1 ATS, 42-47 to the over/under, 25-32 ATS after a win, 17-26-1 ATS as a home favorite, 23-28 ATS on one day rest, 21-30 to the over/under on one day rest, 18-26 to the over/under as a home favorite and 32-29-2 to the over/under after a win this season.

Golden State has an offensive rating of 119.3, defensive rating of 110.5, pace factor of 101.9, and are 3-4 ATS, 4-3 to the over/under in the playoffs so far.

Analysis

The Warriors got the win but failed to cover the number at home again and we are staying off a side for the full game, given it’s at Oracle and how close these teams have played each other and anticipating possible make-up calls by refs in response to the Rockets’ “data-driven” driveling about being treated unfairly.

The Rockets continue to play with deliberate pace and defensive intensity, resulting in all but one of their playoff games finishing under the total this season.

We expect Golden State to continue to play with the defense against the Rockets that has led to four of their five contests going under the total this season and six of seven playoff games going under last year, and have taken under 219 points as our best bet.