Will nightlife keep Warriors from rolling as 13-point favorites at the Lakers?

The Golden State Warriors all but locked up the top seed in the West with their convincing win over the second place Denver Nuggets on Tuesday, moving two games ahead with the tiebreaker and five left to play.

Now the Warriors will look to keep the top seed while optimizing health for their playoff run as they travel to LA to take on the Los Angeles Lakers. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Thursday April 4th, 2019 at 7:30pm

Where: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California

TV: TNT

Line: Warriors -13, o/u 227

Injuries: Kyle Kuzma (foot) is questionable, Tyson Chandler (flu) is questionable, LeBron James (groin), Josh Hart (knee), Brandon Ingram (arm) and Lonzo Ball (ankle) are all out for the Lakers.

Damian Jones (pectoral) is out for the Warriors.

Los Angeles Lakers

Los Angeles fell to 35-43 with their 103-119 loss at the Oklahoma City Thunder on Tuesday, and they are sitting out LeBron James for the rest of the year now that they are out of playoff contention.

The Lakers are statistically led by LeBron James who was averaging 27.4 points, 8.5 rebounds and 8.3 assists per game before getting shut down for the season.

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Los Angeles is scoring 112.0 points per game (16th of 30), allowing 113.7 points per game (22nd of 30), earning a simple rating system (SRS) score of -1.46 (22nd of 30), pace factor of 103.2 (4th of 30), offensive rating of 108.0 (23rd of 30) and defensive rating of 109.6 (12th of 30).

The Lakers are 32-45-1 against the spread (ATS), 30-47-1 to the over/under, 3-9 ATS as a home underdog, 16-25-1 ATS after a loss, 19-28-1 ATS with one day off, 5-6-1 to the over/under as a home underdog, 21-27 to the over/under with one day off and 16-26 to the over/under after a loss.

Los Angeles is 5-5 ATS, having covered in five straight before their loss at OKC, 3-7 to the over/under in their last ten games, averaging four points less per game at home than the road, 114.3 points per game with one day rest and 113.0 points per game against Golden State this season.

Golden State Warriors

The Dubs left no doubt about who rules the Western Conference while improving to 53-24 on the season with their 116-102 victory over the Denver Nuggets that was not as close as the final score.

Golden State is led by Stephen Curry scoring 27.7 points per game and Draymond Green with 7.3 rebounds and 7.0 assists per game.

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The Warriors are scoring 117.7 points per game (2nd of 30), allowing 111.4 points per game (16th of 30), earning a SRS score of 6.40 (2nd of 30), pace factor of 100.8 (11th of 30), offensive rating of 116.0 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 109.8 (14th of 30).

The Dubs are 33-43-1 ATS, 36-41 to the over/under, 20-25 ATS with one day off, 14-18 ATS as an away favorite, 23-28-1 ATS after a win, 28-24 to the over/under after a win, 20-12 to the over/under as an away favorite and 19-26 to the over/under with one day off this season.

Golden State is 6-4 ATS, 3-7 to the over under in their last ten games, averaging 110.1 points per game with a day off and 115.3 points per game against the Lakers this season.

Analysis

Since getting embarrassed at home on Christmas Day, the Warriors have flattened the Lakers by 19 and 14 points, with LeBron James sitting for both of the Dubs’ wins over the Lakers this season.

With LeBron now shut down and Kyle Kuzma questionable or possibly hobbled, it’s hard to envision who can help the Lakers score with consistency and how they will stay motivated for the rest of a throw-away season.

The Warriors have some history of under-performing while visiting Los Angeles, possibly due to more abundant options for entertainment and distraction compared to, let’s say, Salt Lake City.

And at this point of the season, too much nightlife, distraction or a slight dip in motivation with the top seed locked up might be the only factors that would keep the Dubs from smashing the Lakeshow in a likely less-than-enthusiastic Staples Center, whose fair-weather fans have probably lost interest since missing the playoffs, even more so with the benching of their king.

While we expect the Warriors to win even if slightly hungover, less motivated or managing loads, Golden State seems to spur a sense of pride in even the most disillusioned teams and it would not be surprising for the rest of the Lakers to want to show what they can do against the champs without James, making it difficult to lay this giant spread on the road.

Anticipating the Lakers to struggle offensively without LeBron and a questionable Kuzma, taken together with the Lakers averaging less points at home and both of these teams trending under recently, we lean toward under 227 points in this contest.