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Can Warriors cover 16-points against the Cavaliers, both teams on no rest?

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Golden State will travel home and play the second game of a back-to-back against Cleveland.

NBA: Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers
Steph and KD were able to rest for chunks of the fourth quarter against the Lakers.
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

The Golden State Warriors rolled the broken Los Angeles Lakers with minimal effort and will face another one of LeBron James’ discarded carcasses of a team in the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Friday April 5th, 2019 at 7:30pm

Where: Oracle Arena, Oakland, California

TV: NBC Sports Bay Area

Line: Warriors -16, o/u at 226

Injuries: Kevin Love (shoulder) is questionable, J.R. Smith (personal), John Henson (wrist) and Matthew Dellavadova (concussion) are out for the Cavs.

DeMarcus Cousins (rest), Andre Iguodala (toe) and Damian Jones (pectoral) are out for the Warriors.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Cleveland dropped to 19-60 with their 104-117 loss to the Sacramento Kings, having lost seven in a row and ten of their last twelve games.

The Cavs are led by Jordan Clarkson with 17.1 points per game and Larry Nance Jr. with 8.0 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game.

NBA: Cleveland Cavaliers at Sacramento Kings
Jordan Clarkson leads the Cavs in points per game.
Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports

Cleveland is scoring 104.6 points per game (29th of 30), allowing 113.9 points per game (23rd of 30), earning a simple rating system (SRS) score of -9.12 (30th of 30), pace factor of 96.7 (29th of 30), offensive rating of 107.8 (25th of 30) and defensive rating of 117.3 (30th of 30).

The Cavaliers are 37-41-1 against the spread (ATS), 41-36-2 to the over/under, 8-5 ATS on no rest, 18-21-1 ATS as an away underdog, 4-8-1 to the over/under on no rest and 20-20 to the over/under as an away underdog this season.

Cleveland is 5-5 ATS, 7-3 to the over/under in their last ten games, averaging more than 3 points on the road compared to home, 122.0 points per game in April, 112.8 points per game on no rest and 105.0 points per game against Golden State this season.

Golden State Warriors

Golden State improved to 54-24 following their 108-90 blowout of the Lakers, and now have a stranglehold on the top seed in the conference with four games to go and nothing left to prove in the regular season.

The Warriors are led by Stephen Curry scoring 27.4 points per game and Draymond Green with 7.3 rebounds and 7.0 assists per game.

NBA: Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers
Steph had 10 rebounds against the Lakers.
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

The Warriors are scoring 117.6 points per game (2nd of 30), allowing 111.1 points per game (16th of 30), earning a SRS score of 6.54 (2nd of 30), pace factor of 100.9 (10th of 30), offensive rating of 115.8 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 109.4 (12th of 30).

The Dubs are 34-43-1 ATS, 36-42 to the over/under, 3-7-1 ATS with no rest, 15-23-1 ATS as the home team, 24-28-1 ATS after a win, 28-25 to the over/under after a win, 15-24 to the over/under as a home favorite and 6-5 to the over/under on no rest this season.

Golden State is 6-4 ATS, including three straight covers, 3-7 to the over/under in their last ten games, averaging 102.0 points per game in April, 115.5 points per game on no rest and 129.0 points per game against the Cavs this season.

Analysis

This is a match-up of two teams playing on no rest with little reason to try too hard for the rest of this regular season, the Cavs backing into their best possible lottery pick and the Dubs prioritizing health over regular season wins with the top seed locked up.

Since Golden State doesn’t need to over exert themselves in these final games, it would not be surprising if they announced late scratches or dramatically limited the minutes of players who do suit up, making it difficult to lay this gigantic number.

With both teams traveling, playing the second game of a back-to-back and no reasons to be a hero, taken together with Cleveland’s impotent offense, slow pace and the Warriors recent trend of stiffer defense and games under the total, we lean toward under 226 points in this second to last Warriors home game at Oracle.

Poll

What is your best bet for Warriors vs. Cavaliers on 4/5/19?

This poll is closed

  • 38%
    Warriors -16
    (37 votes)
  • 25%
    Cavs +16
    (24 votes)
  • 13%
    Over 226
    (13 votes)
  • 22%
    Under 226
    (22 votes)
96 votes total Vote Now