Will Warriors close regular seasons at Oracle with 11.5-point cover over the Clippers?

The Golden State Warriors will host the Los Angeles Clippers in the last regular season game at Oracle Arena in Oakland.

Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Sunday April 7th, 2019

Where: Oracle Arena, Oakland, California

TV: NBC Sports Bay Area

Line: Warriors -11.5, o/u 235

Injuries: Patrick Beverley (hip) is doubtful, Danilo Gallinari (ankle) is doubtful, Luc Mbah a Moute (knee) is out for the Clippers.

Shaun Livingston (knee) is questionable, Andre Iguodala (toe) is questionable and Damian Jones (pectoral) is out for the Warriors.

Los Angeles Clippers

The Clips dropped to 47-33 with their 117-122 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers on Friday and have lost three of five.

Los Angeles is led by Lou Williams with 20.1 points and 5.4 assists per game and Montrezl Harrell with 6.6 rebounds per game.

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The Clippers are scoring 114.9 points per game (5th of 30), allowing 113.8 points per game (22nd of 30), earning a simple rating system (SRS) score of 1.23 (13th of 30), pace factor of 101.6 (8th of 30), offensive rating of 112.4 (9th of 30) and defensive rating of 111.3 (20th of 30).

Los Angeles is 45-34-1 against the spread (ATS), 43-36-1 to the over/under, 13-12-1 ATS as an away underdog, 28-18-1 ATS with one day off, 19-13 ATS after a loss, 26-21 to the over/under with one day off, 18-14 to the over/under after a loss and 9-17 to the over/under as an away underdog this season.

The Clips are 5-5 ATS, 8-2 to the over/under in their last ten games, averaging 128.5 points per game in April, 113.0 points per game on one day of rest and 114.0 points per game against the Warriors this season.

Golden State Warriors

Golden State improved to 55-24 with a 120-114 win over the Cleveland Cavaliers and have now won four in a row since that overtime debacle in Minnesota.

The Warriors are led by Stephen Curry scoring 27.6 points per game and Draymond Green with 7.3 rebounds and 6.9 assists per game.

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The Warriors are scoring 117.6 points per game (2nd of 30), allowing 111.2 points per game (16th of 30), earning a SRS score of 6.43 (2nd of 30), pace factor of 100.8 (10th of 30), offensive rating of 115.8 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 109.5 (13th of 30).

The Dubs are 34-44-1 ATS, 37-42 to the over/under, 15-24-1 ATS as the home team, 24-29-1 ATS after a win, 21-25 ATS with one day off, 29-25 to the over/under after a win, 19-27 to the over/under with one day off and 16-24 to the over/under as a home favorite.

Golden State is 6-4 ATS, 4-6 to the over/under in their last ten games, averaging 102.0 points per game in April, 109.6 points per game with one day rest and 119.0 points per game against the Clips this season.

Analysis

The Clippers have covered four of the last five contests against the Warriors, including four straight at Oracle.

Golden State has the conference’s top seed pretty much locked up but only one game separates the sixth through eighth seeds with the Clippers holding the six seed with three to play.

Golden State will want to close out their final regular season game at Oracle with a win but might prioritize health, which could mean less minutes for some players and possibly letting the foot off the gas late in the game and leaving the back door wide open, as happened with Cleveland, making it difficult to lay this big number.

If Gallinari sits, the Clippers will be lacking in offense but nine of the last ten games against the Warriors have gone over the total and the Clippers have been trending over recently.

If the Warriors relax a bit on defense as they did late against the Cavs, we anticipate a faster paced game with less defensive intensity and lean toward over 235 points in this game.