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Should bettors avoid the Warriors’ last regular season games, starting with the Pelicans?

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Golden State has clinched the top seed in the West and little to play for in the final two games, a back-to-back starting in New Orleans.

NBA: Los Angeles Clippers at Golden State Warriors
Steph scored 27 in the Warriors’ blowout of the Clippers in the final regular season game at Oracle.
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Now that Golden State has clinched the top seed in their conference and sent Oracle off in style with a blowout win in its final game, the Warriors don’t have much to play for in their final, back-to-back regular season games, starting with the New Orleans Pelicans on Tuesday evening.

Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Tuesday April 9th, 2019 at 5:00pm PST.

Where: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana.

TV: NBC Sports Bay Area

Line: Warriors -9.5, o/u 235

Injuries: Anthony Davis (back) is probable and Stanley Johnson (ankle), Frank Jackson (concussion), Trevon Bluiett (thumb), Darius Miller (thigh), E’Twaun Moore (quadricep) and Jrue Holiday (abdominal) are out for the Pelicans.

Andre Iguodala (toe), Andrew Bogut (rest), Kevin Durant (rest) and Damian Jones (pectoral) are out for the Warriors.

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans improved to 33-48 with their 133-129 win at the Sacramento Kings, snapping a three game losing streak.

New Orleans is led by Julius Randle with 21.4 points and 8.7 rebounds per game and Jrue Holiday with 7.7 assists per game.

NBA: New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns
Julius Randle leads the Pelicans in points and rebounds per game.
Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

The Pelicans are scoring 115.6 points per game (3rd of 30), allowing 116.8 points per game (28th of 30), earning a simple rating system (SRS) score of -1.08 (21st of 30), pace factor of 103.3 (2nd of 30), offensive rating of 111.5 (12th of 30) and defensive rating of 112.7 (23rd of 30).

New Orleans is 37-43-1 against the spread (ATS), 45-36 to the over/under, 24-24-1 ATS with one day of rest, 9-10 ATS as a home underdog, 28-21 to the over/under with one day off, 10-9 to the over/under as a home underdog and 14-18 to the over/under after a win this season.

The Pelicans are 3-7 ATS, 7-3 to the over/under in their last ten games, averaging 127.5 points per game in April, 117.8 points per game with one day rest and 130.5 points per game against the Warriors this season.

Golden State Warriors

The Dubs played their last game in Oracle in style with the throwback uniforms and a 131-104 demolition of the Los Angeles Clippers, clinching the Western Conference’s top seed with their 56-24 record with two games left to play.

The Warriors are led by Stephen Curry scoring 27.6 points per game and Draymond Green with 7.3 rebounds and 7.0 assists per game.

NBA: Los Angeles Clippers at Golden State Warriors
Draymond finished one assist short of a triple-double in his final regular season game at Oracle.
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The Warriors are scoring 117.8 points per game (2nd of 30), allowing 111.1 points per game (16th of 30), earning a SRS score of 6.69 (2nd of 30), pace factor of 100.9 (10th of 30), offensive rating of 116.0 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 109.4 (11th of 30).

The Dubs are 35-44-1 ATS, 37-43 to the over/under, 15-18 ATS as an away favorite, 25-29-1 ATS after a win, 22-25 ATS with one day off, 29-26 to the over/under after a win, 19-28 to the over/under with one day off and 20-13 to the over/under as an away favorite this season.

Golden State is 6-4 ATS, 4-6 to the over/under in their last ten games, averaging 102.5 points per game in April, 109.5 points per game with one day rest and 139.0 points per game against the Pelicans this season.

Analysis

The Warriors have covered both games against the Pelicans this season, with both games going over the total.

But given that both of these teams have little to play for with multiple scratches to both lineups and possible limited minutes for key players, we would advise staying away from betting the final two regular season games.

If we were forced to pick a side in the New Orleans game, we would lean toward over 235 based on anticipating less defensive intensity and previous high scoring when these teams play each other.

Based on more unpredictability about which players might rest or be limited in their final regular season game, the second of a back-to-back, we will not be handicapping the Warriors game at Memphis on Wednesday but will resume when the playoffs commence.

Poll

What is your best bet for Warriors at Pelicans on 4/9/19?

This poll is closed

  • 36%
    Warriors -9.5
    (27 votes)
  • 16%
    Pelicans +9.5
    (12 votes)
  • 14%
    Over 235
    (11 votes)
  • 9%
    Under 235
    (7 votes)
  • 24%
    Wait until the playoffs
    (18 votes)
75 votes total Vote Now