The Golden State Warriors used defensive effort and solid bench production to handle an impotent Portland Trail Blazers squad, winning game one of the Western Conference Finals at Oracle Arena by the score of 116-94.
Here we discuss the game two odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
When: Thursday May 16th, 2019 at 6:00pm PST
Where: Oracle Arena, Oakland, California
Line: Warriors -7.5, o/u 218
Injuries: Damian Lillard (hamstring) is probable and Jusuf Nurkic (leg) is out for the Blazers.
Kevin Durant (calf) and DeMarcus Cousins (quadricep) are out for the Warriors.
The Blazers need to and likely will improve on their game one field goal percentage of 36.1 and three point percentage of 25.0 if they want to stand a chance in game two.
Portland is led by Damian Lillard with 27.7 points, 6.0 assists and 1.8 steals per game, Enes Kanter with 11.0 rebounds per game and Zach Collins with 1.5 blocks per game in the playoffs.
The Blazers are 51-43-1 against the spread (ATS), 49-44-2 to the over/under, 36-28 ATS with one day off, 19-14 ATS after a loss, 12-19 ATS as an away underdog, 36-26-2 to the over/under on one day of rest, 18-15 to the over/under after a loss and 13-18 to the over/under as an away underdog this season.
Portland has an offensive rating of 111.0, defensive rating of 111.5, pace factor of 95.9 and is 6-7 ATS, 7-6 to the over/under in the playoffs.
Golden State Warriors
Golden State hit 50.0 percent of their field goals and 51.5 percent of three point attempts, coupled with solid production from their bench and consistent team defense to smother the punchless Blazers in game one.
The Warriors are led by Kevin Durant with 34.2 points per game, Draymond Green with 9.3 rebounds, 7.8 assists and 1.5 blocks per game and Klay Thompson with 1.5 steals per game in these playoffs.
The Dubs are 41-53-1 ATS, 46-49 to the over/under, 28-36-1 ATS after a win, 19-27-1 ATS as a home favorite, 25-30 ATS with one day of rest, 19-28 to the over/under as a home favorite, 24-31 to the over/under on one day of rest and 35-30 to the over/under after a win this season.
Golden State has an offensive rating of 118.3, defensive rating of 111.2, pace factor of 98.9 and are 6-7 ATS, 8-5 to the over/under in the playoffs.
We rushed our game one analysis and overlooked how the Blazers might be due for a letdown with only a day of rest after an emotional, come-from-behind win in a game seven on the road in the thin air of Denver.
After shooting 37 and 33 percent from the field in game one, respectively, Dame Lillard and CJ McCollum are almost certainly going to get more shots to drop in game two.
And if regression to the mean occurs both ways, Golden State is not likely to shoot 50 percent from the field and 51 percent from three point range, and we will also be surprised if Portland lets Stephen Curry get as many open looks from three point range as he had in game one.
Among the teams left in the playoffs, the Blazers and the Warriors have the two worst defensive ratings at 111.5 and 111.2, respectively. And despite the relatively slower pace from both of these teams in the playoffs so far, we expect the Blazers to come out filled with piss and vinegar and more aggressive on offense, making us lean toward over 218 total points and wary of laying the big number in game two, though we expect the Warriors to win the game.
What is your best bet for Warriors vs. Blazers on 5/16/19 in game 2?
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