Will Warriors sweep the Blazers as 3.5-point favorites in Portland?

The Golden State Warriors are partying like it’s 2015, in full Strength in Numbers mode and in position to sweep the Portland Trail Blazers.

Here we discuss the Western Conference Finals game four odds and analysis.

When: Monday May 20th, 2019 at 6:00pm PST

Where: Moda Center, Portland, Oregon

TV: ESPN

Line: Warriors -3.5, o/u 220.5

Injuries: Jusuf Nurkic (leg) is out for the Blazers.

Andre Iguodala (calf) is doubtful, Kevin Durant (calf) and DeMarcus Cousins (quadricep) are out for the Warriors.

Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers went limp in the second half for the second straight game and now face elimination on their home court.

Portland is led by CJ McCollum with 20.7 points per game, Damian Lillard with 7.3 assists per game, Seth Curry with 2.3 steals per game, Enes Kanter with 8.7 rebounds per game and Maurice Harkless with 1.7 blocks per game in this series so far.

Photo by Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images

The Blazers are 52-44-1 against the spread (ATS), 50-45-2 to the over/under, 37-29 ATS with one day off, 20-15 ATS after a loss, 4-2 ATS as a home underdog, 37-27-2 to the over/under on one day of rest, 19-16 to the over/under after a loss and 3-3 to the over/under as a home underdog this season.

Portland has an offensive rating of 110.6, defensive rating of 112.0, pace factor of 96.1 and is 7-8 ATS, 8-7 to the over/under in the playoffs, 1-2 ATS and 1-2 to the over/under in this series so far.

Golden State Warriors

Golden State rode a transcendent playoff performance from Draymond Green to another come-from-behind-a-double-digit-deficit to a 110-99 win in Portland and appear to have broken the Blazers.

And just as the Blazers’ spirit has become downtrodden, the Warriors appear to be brimming with positive energy and support, as exemplified by Draymond Green’s talk to his teammates in last night’s game compared to, let’s say, his words on the bench in November at the Clippers.

The Warriors are led by Stephen Curry with 36.3 points per game, Draymond Green with 11.0 rebounds, 8.0 assists and 3.0 blocks and 2.0 steals per game in this series so far.

Photo by Steve Dykes/Getty Images

The Dubs are 42-54-1 ATS, 47-50 to the over/under, 29-37-1 ATS after a win, 17-21 ATS as an away favorite, 26-31 ATS with one day of rest, 23-15 to the over/under as an away favorite, 25-32 to the over/under on one day of rest and 36-31 to the over/under after a win this season.

Golden State has an offensive rating of 117.9, defensive rating of 110.8, pace factor of 98.7 and are 7-8 ATS, 9-6 to the over/under in the playoffs, 2-1 ATS and 1-2 to the over/under in this series so far.

Analysis

The Warriors have overcome a thirteen-plus point halftime deficit in consecutive Western Conference Finals games and if that doesn’t tell you they are possessed and on a mission with renewed motivation, nothing will. And at this point, the only question is whether this part of the mission will be a classic sweep or gentleman’s sweep.

With the Milwaukee Bucks gaining momentum in their series, and more talking media heads picking the Bucks to beat the Dubs should they meet in the Finals, this Golden State squad continues to play with a chip on their shoulder and palpable joy, a bad combination for the rest of the league, and you can bet they are scoreboard watching and wanting to maximize rest and time for Kevin Durant to return if they can by finishing this series as soon as possible, even more so with Andre Iguodala also now dealing with a calf injury.

The toll of a seven-game, back-and-forth series at altitude seems to have gotten to the Blazers’ legs, as their shooting has broken down in the second half of each of the last two games.

Portland only managed 46 points in the second half of game two and an anemic 33 points in the second half of game three, and Dame Lillard has been stifled by the Warriors’ relentless defense, finishing -7 in plus/minus in game two and -23 in game three.

The Warriors’ 2015 title run was anchored to the top defense and fastest pace factor in the league, and we’ve seen the Dubs rally around focused defensive intensity and pace to go on winning streaks without KD before and they are doing it again now, and we don’t see that stopping any time soon and lean toward under 220.5 points in game four, though the Warriors defense will be somewhat lacking without Iguodala in game four.

Any discussion about the Warriors’ defense in this series must include mention of Klay’s lockdown suffocation of the Blazers’ scorers. Did anyone else notice him giving no room to breathe and still trying to block shots with only ninety seconds left in a game they were leading by double-digits? That’s one of the reasons they call him Killa Klay.

Just look at Klay’s face after that block. Is that the look of a man who is about to concede a gentleman’s sweep?

And just as before, the relentless defense has been leading to more fast-break points (17.7 to 7.7), points off of turnovers (22.0 to 17.7) and more players touching the ball and assists per game (29 to 22) in this series so far, opening things up for Quinn Cook, Jonas Jerebko, Jordan Bell and Kevon Looney to provide outstanding bench production and defense and appear like they are having fun while doing it.

Klay Thompson has gone as far as calling the line up of himself, Steph, Dray, Andre and Looney the mini death lineup, and this moniker is apropros because it has been the kiss of death for the Blazers in the past two contests and we expect the Warriors to go in for the kill on Monday night.

No need to overthink this one. We expect the Warriors to sweep the Blazers and have already locked in Warriors -3 after buying a half point.

But if you’re worried about how Andre’s absence will affect the team and Blazers’ pride to avoid a sweep at home, another reasonable betting strategy the past two games has been to wait until the second half, after the Dubs have weathered an initial first half offensive storm by the Blazers, and then betting the second half spread or taking Warriors to win on the live moneyline with great odds.