Why are Warriors 1-pt underdogs at the Raptors in game 1 of the NBA Finals?

The Golden State Warriors have reached their fifth straight NBA Finals where they will take on the red-hot Toronto Raptors with game one opening in the Queen City on Thursday night.

Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Thursday May 30th, 2019 at 6:00pm PST

Where: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario

TV: ABC

Line: Warriors +1, o/u 215

Injuries: OG Anunoby (appendix) is out and Patrick McCaw (personal) is questionable for the Raptors.

Andre Iguodala (calf) is probable, DeMarcus Cousins (quadricep) is questionable and Kevin Durant (calf) is out for the Warriors.

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors rode transcendent play from Kawhi Leonard, relentless defense and tightly controlled pace to stifle Giannis Antetokounmpo and grind the Milwaukee Bucks into submission with four straight victories to close out the series.

Toronto is led by Kawhi Leonard with 31.2 points, 1.6 steals and 8.8 rebounds per game, Kyle Lowry with 6.4 assists per game and Marc Gasol with 1.3 blocks per game in the playoffs.

Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images

The Raptors are 47-52-1 against the spread (ATS), 52-47-1 to the over/under, 33-35-1 ATS after a win, 24-26-0 as a home favorite, 0-1 ATS with 4+ days off, 1-0 to the over/under with 4+ days off, 38-30-1 to the over/under after a win and 26-24 to the over/under as a home favorite.

Toronto has an offensive rating of 108.4, defensive rating of 102.8, pace factor of 95.7 and are 10-8 ATS, including four straight covers, and 6-12 to the over/under in the playoffs so far.

Golden State Warriors

Golden State leaned on triple-doubles from both Stephen Curry and Draymond Green to outlast the Portland Trail Blazers in game four and sweep the Western Conference Finals.

The Warriors are led by Kevin Durant with 34.2 points per game, Draymond Green with 9.9 rebounds, 8.2 assists and 1.7 blocks per game and Klay Thompson with 1.5 steals per game in the playoffs so far.

Photo by Steve Dykes/Getty Images

The Dubs are 42-54-2 ATS, 48-50 to the over/under, 30-37-1 ATS after a win, 6-4 ATS as an away underdog, 0-1 ATS with 4+ days of rest, 4-6 to the over/under as an away underdog, 1-0 to the over/under with 4+ days of rest and 37-31 to the over/under after a win this season.

Golden State has an offensive rating of 117.5, defensive rating of 110.8, pace factor of 98.5 and are 7-8-1 ATS, 10-6 to the over/under in the playoffs so far.

Analysis

Golden State went 1-1 ATS and 1-1 to the over/under but lost both games against Toronto in the regular season, but if you are making a case to back the Warriors in this spot then you might not mind that the Dubs will be seeking revenge here.

Their first meeting in Toronto went to overtime behind an unconscious performance from Kevin Durant, but not having Steph Curry or Draymond Green for that contest proved to be too much of a disadvantage as the Raptors won in overtime.

The Raptors were without Kawhi Leonard for their game at Oracle and maybe that was a factor in the Dubs coming out lazy and unmotivated in an embarrassing home loss, the kind that happened more often than Warriors fans would have liked last regular season.

But as Klay Thompson said, the key word is regular when referring to the regular season, implying that the Dubs take the playoffs much more seriously and this has become more evident since Kevin Durant went out in game five of the conference semi-finals against the Houston Rockets, as Golden State has won six straight since that moment.

Kawhi Leonard is outstanding but the Warriors have Steph Curry, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala with five straight years of experience playing in the NBA Finals.

Steve Kerr and the Warriors have an outstanding record in game ones in the playoffs and are 4-0 in game one of the NBA Finals since 2015, and given the Warriors played better on the road than at home this year, we are picking the Dubs to win game one in Toronto.