Can Warriors steal a win in Toronto as 2-point underdogs to the Raptors in game 2?

Speculation about a negative impact from a long layoff may have been reasonably founded, as the Golden State Warriors appeared slow to respond to Pascal Siakam and the energized Raptors and their fans, losing 109-118 in game one of the NBA Finals in Toronto on Thursday night.

Now the Warriors have the opportunity to leave Toronto with a split or down two games to none, depending on the outcome of a critical game two on Sunday evening.

Here we discuss the game two odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Sunday June 2nd, 2019 at 5:00pm PST

Where: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario

TV: ABC

Line: Warriors +2, o/u 215

Injuries: OG Anunoby (appendix) is probable for the Raptors.

Andre Iguodala (calf) is probable and Kevin Durant (calf) is out for the Warriors.

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors utilized an all-time performance, including hitting fourteen of seventeen shots, from Pascal Siakam, strong offense to go with his usual rebounding from Marc Gasol, and Danny Green making several three-pointers for the first time in awhile to keep the Warriors at bay and ultimately pull away for a critical win in game one.

Toronto is led by Kawhi Leonard with 30.7 points, 1.5 steals and 8.8 rebounds per game, Kyle Lowry with 6.6 assists per game and Marc Gasol with 1.3 blocks per game in the playoffs.

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The Raptors are 48-52-1 against the spread (ATS), 53-47-1 to the over/under, 34-35-1 ATS after a win, 25-26 ATS as a home favorite, 9-14 ATS with 2-3 days off, 8-15 to the over/under with 2-3 days off, 39-30-1 to the over/under after a win and 27-24 to the over/under as a home favorite.

Toronto has an offensive rating of 109.3, defensive rating of 103.5, pace factor of 95.6 and are 11-8 ATS, including five straight covers, and 7-12 to the over/under in the playoffs so far.

Golden State Warriors

Golden State’s poor transition defense, turnovers and lack of offensive production from anyone not named Steph led to their undoing in game one and will continue to be a problem if not addressed.

Among players active for game two, the Warriors are led by Stephen Curry with 27.7 points per game, Draymond Green with 9.9 rebounds, 8.3 assists and 1.6 blocks per game, tied with Klay Thompson with 1.4 steals per game in the playoffs so far.

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The Dubs are 42-55-2 ATS, 49-50 to the over/under, 13-16 ATS after a loss, 6-5 ATS as an away underdog, 13-12 ATS with 2-3 days off, 5-6 to the over/under as an away underdog, 13-12 to the over/under with 2-3 days of rest and 11-18 to the over/under after a loss this season.

Golden State has an offensive rating of 117.4, defensive rating of 111.6, pace factor of 98.2 and are 7-9-1 ATS, 11-6 to the over/under in the playoffs so far.

Analysis

Golden State has been criticized for its defense all year and it was hypothesized as a potential Achilles Heel in their quest for a three-peat, and those premonitions came to fruition in game one of the NBA Finals, compounded by the Warriors’ inability to generate consistent offense against and turnovers caused by the physical and long Raptors defense.

The last time the Warriors faced a similarly long and athletic team late in the playoffs was the 2016 Western Conference Finals against Kevin Durant and the Oklahoma City Thunder, when they were run out of the Thunder’s gym in the first two games in Oklahoma City, going down 1-3 and needing a transcendent game from Klay on the road to miraculously get back in the series.

The other weakness that was exposed during those 2016 playoffs was the Warriors lacking someone who could get their shot in any situation, given how Harrison Barnes seemed unable to do so for much of those playoffs, and it directly led to the signing of Kevin Durant, whose presence was sorely missed in game one.

We’ve enjoyed flashes of 2015 at times when Kevin Durant has been out, but there was a reason the Warriors almost lost to the Thunder and squandered a 3-1 lead in the Finals in 2016 and Kevin Durant was the solution then and he may be what the Warriors need now.

Aside from the aforementioned moments, the most anxiety provoking playoff situations that have occurred during this Golden Age of Warriors basketball has been when Andre Iguodala has been hurt, as exemplified by the 2018 Western Conference Finals against Houston, and his being listed as probable does nothing to alleviate our deep concerns that something is not right with him.

Not having Kevin Durant for game two, taken together with the current momentum of the Raptors’ play, makes us wary of picking the Warriors in game two. But if Andre is playing with any kind of pain, DubNation might have to prepare for the possibility of being down two games when the series shifts to Oakland.

We do anticipate the Warriors tightening up their defensive intensity in transition and would be shocked if Pascal Siakam comes even close to shooting eighty percent again. At the same time, we expect the Raptors to continue their suffocating defense and attempts to control the pace .

Without KD and against this physical defense buoyed by a rabid crowd in Toronto, the Warriors besides Steph Curry may continue to struggle to find an offensive flow and score, making the total finishing under 215 points our best bet for game two.