Can Warriors turn the tide as 2-point underdogs to Raptors in game 5 at Toronto?

The twilight of the Golden State Warriors’ season and shadows surrounding Kevin Durant’s availability, opposed by the tenacious and efficient team play from the Toronto Raptors, have created a sense of foreboding for some of DubNation heading into game five in the 6ix.

Here we discuss the game five odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Monday June 10th, 2019 at 6:00pm PST

Where: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario

TV: ABC

Line: Warriors +2, o/u 214.5

Injuries: Fred VanVleet (face) is probable for the Raptors.

Kevin Durant (calf) is questionable for the Warriors.

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors suffocated the Warriors in Oracle for the second consecutive game, holding Golden State’s offense to a mere 92 points in what could very well be the last game at the arena.

Toronto is led by Kawhi Leonard with 31.1 points, 1.6 steals and 9.1 rebounds per game, Kyle Lowry with 6.5 assists per game and Marc Gasol with 1.2 blocks per game in the playoffs.

Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

The Raptors are 50-53-1 against the spread (ATS), 54-49-1 to the over/under, 35-36 ATS after a win, 25-27 ATS as a home favorite, 10-15 ATS with 2-3 days off, 9-16 to the over/under with 2-3 days off, 39-32-1 to the over/under after a win and 27-25 to the over/under as a home favorite this season.

Toronto has an offensive rating of 115.8, pace factor of 97.1 and are 3-1 ATS and 2-2 to the over/under in this series so far, 13-9 ATS and 8-14 to the over/under in the playoffs.

Golden State Warriors

Golden State’s offense went impotent in the second half of its 92-105 loss and the defense continued to allow high percentage shots, removing any shred of margin the Warriors may have had in this series.

Among players most likely active for game five, the Warriors are led by Stephen Curry with 28.4 points per game, Draymond Green with 9.7 rebounds, 8.3 assists, 1.5 blocks and 1.4 steals per game in the playoffs so far.

Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

The Dubs are 43-57-2 ATS, 50-52 to the over/under, 14-17 ATS after a loss, 7-5 ATS as an away underdog, 14-13 ATS with 2-3 days off, 5-7 to the over/under as an away underdog, 14-13 to the over/under with 2-3 days of rest and 11-20 to the over/under after a loss this season.

Golden State has an offensive rating of 107.8, pace factor of 97.1 and are 1-3 ATS and 2-2 to the over/under in this series so far, 8-11-1 ATS, 12-8 to the over/under in the playoffs.

Analysis

We have little doubt that the Warriors who play in game five of these Finals will leave it all out on the floor and play like their lives depend on it, but still no idea if that will include Kevin Durant.

Any sense of urgency from the Warriors is likely to be channeled into defensive intensity, whether Golden State can sustain it for four quarters remains to be seen, however.

The Raptors defense has shut down all the Warriors not named Steph Curry or Klay Thompson for most of this series and we see no let up in game five. Even if Kevin Durant plays, we don’t see him getting a significant amount of minutes after a month off and do see him just as likely to contribute on defense as offense if he does.

Toronto will be going nuclear as they host this elimination game and high emotion could adversely affect Raptors shooters not named Kawhi Leonard early on, even more so if the Dubs are locking in on defense, and based on the expectation of a tight, physical battle, we are siding with under 214.5 points as the best bet for game five.