Will Warriors win final game at Oracle for KD, laying 3-points to the Raptors in game 6?

Kevin Durant’s ultimate sacrifice fueled the Golden State Warriors to the narrowest 106-105 victory in game five, but he can now only watch as the Dubs face the next elimination game without him in Golden State’s final game at Oracle Arena.

Here we discuss the game six odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Thursday June 13th, 2019 at 6:00pm PST

Where: Oracle Arena, Oakland, California

TV: ABC

Line: Warriors -3, o/u 211.5

Injuries: Kevon Looney (collarbone) is probable and Kevin Durant (Achilles) is out for the Warriors.

Toronto Raptors

Just when it looked like Kawhi Leonard was about to plunge the dagger into the hearts of the Warriors and DubNation on what could have ended up being one the most depressing nights in Golden State’s post-season history, Nick Nurse called a time out with the Toronto Raptors up by six points and about three minutes left to play, allowing the Dubs to catch their breaths and get reset on defense, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory and allowing the NBA Finals to return to Oracle for another game.

Whether it was a by-product of the Warriors’ defense or not, the Raptors shot .250 percent from three-point range and Kawhi Leonard was held to hitting .375 percent of field goals and it was not enough to get it done in game five, though one can only anticipate that these numbers will improve in game six.

Toronto is led by Kawhi Leonard with 30.9 points, 1.7 steals and 9.2 rebounds per game, Kyle Lowry with 6.5 assists per game and Marc Gasol with 1.1 blocks per game in the playoffs.

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The Raptors are 50-54-1 against the spread (ATS), 54-50-1 to the over/under, 15-16 ATS after a loss, 13-8 ATS as an away underdog, 10-16 ATS with 2-3 days off, 9-17 to the over/under with 2-3 days off, 14-17 to the over/under after a loss and 12-9 to the over/under as an away underdog this season.

Toronto has an offensive rating of 114.9, pace factor of 96.6 and are 3-2 ATS and 2-3 to the over/under in this series so far, 13-10 ATS and 8-15 to the over/under in the playoffs.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors received an unequivocal boost from Kevin Durant’s heroic eleven points on perfect three-point shooting in twelve minutes in the first half but appeared as if they would not be able to sustain it, conceding the lead to the tenacious Raptors late in the fourth quarter, only to be saved by a relentless and nearly perfect final three minutes from the Splash Brothers, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson.

Among players active for game six, the Warriors are led by Stephen Curry with 28.5 points per game, Draymond Green with 9.7 rebounds, 8.3 assists, 1.5 blocks and 1.4 steals per game in the playoffs.

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The Dubs are 44-57-2 ATS, 50-53 to the over/under, 29-39-2 ATS after a win, 19-30-1 ATS as a home favorite, 15-13 ATS with 2-3 days off, 21-29 to the over/under as a home favorite, 14-14 to the over/under with 2-3 days of rest and 39-31 to the over/under after a win this season.

Golden State has an offensive rating of 108.7, pace factor of 96.6 and are 2-3 ATS and 2-3 to the over/under in this series so far, 9-11-1 ATS, 12-9 to the over/under in the playoffs.

Analysis

When Kevin Durant has not been on the hardwood, the Toronto Raptors have been the better team on both sides of the floor for most of this series, consistently finding seams in the Warriors inconsistent defense for its highest offensive rating out of any series in these playoffs, and suffocating the Warriors’ shooters into their lowest offensive rating out of any series in these playoffs.

The Raptors have won most of the quarters played in a series that could have easily been a sweep for Toronto, responded to almost every challenge the Warriors have thrown at them and soundly beat the Dubs in both games at Oracle. And now with KD done for good, it’s no wonder some sharp money has shifted the spread from Warriors -3.5 down to -2.5 at some books.

Considering how mentally and physically taxing game five must have been for the Warriors, and expecting the Raptors to improve on their .250 percent three-point shooting and the Warriors to regress from their .476 three-point shooting in game five, we can only anticipate a close, physical dogfight and if you put a gun to our head and forced us to bet a side, we would probably take the points with the Raptors, but we are staying off a side in this contest.

While it seems that all the betting value might lie with taking three points with Toronto, one cannot ignore the intangible factors that favor Golden State.

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Final game at Oracle: This will be the last ever Warriors game at Oracle Arena and the Raptors have beaten the Dubs in three straight games at Oracle this season. Could Toronto beat the Warriors in their house for four straight games including the grand finale? Of course. But will it be easy? Doubt it.

KD’s sacrifice: Kevin Durant paid the ultimate price for his team and now the whole world has closure on where KD’s heart was and where he will be moving forward. The Warriors know for sure KD ain’t walking through that door so any hope for a cavalry that may have mitigated any sense of urgency is now gone, leaving the Warriors with the sober realization that they will have to improve without KD and highly motivated and galvanized to do everything they can to try and let KD know his sacrifice was not all for naught.

Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

Pressure is mounting, legs are tiring: Now that the Raptors missed their chance to close it out at home in game five and allowed this series to return to Oracle, each game comes with more pressure, increased susceptibility to doubt and progressively tiring legs and that could favor the team that has been playing more players and with more Finals experience, and adversely affect the team with less Finals experience and a shorter bench.

We have deep concerns that Golden State could be due for a let down in game six but honestly have no idea who will come out on top due to the aforementioned intangibles. We do feel confident that both teams will be playing as if their lives depend on it with high levels of defensive intensity and physical play.

Even though we often consider the over with teams playing their elimination game in their own house, the Warriors should take better care of the ball and give their best defensive effort of these playoffs and the Raptors are likely to continue with their long, smothering coverage in game six.

Considering that NBA Finals can sometimes tend to become lower scoring and slower paced with each successive game and its corresponding increase in pressure and tiring of legs, taken together with a possible let down after such an emotional game five, we are once again siding with under 211.5 points as our best bet for game six.