In a Western Conference full of parity, only 3.5 games separate home-court advantage in round one from missing the play-in tournament entirely. Tonight, two teams try to find separation while two others try to close the gap in a big ESPN Wednesday night doubleheader. The Golden State Warriors try to win two straight road games for the first time this season and hold their precarious half-game lead on the Dallas Mavericks. Then in the late game, the Los Angeles Lakers host the Phoenix Suns and continue their season-long quest to climb back into the play-in.
It’s a conference finals rematch in Dallas, where the Warriors are unlikely to see Kyrie Irving - but very likely to see Luka Doncic.
Luka Doncic is expected to return vs. Warriors tonight after missing the previous five games with a left thigh strain. https://t.co/kjWLQlUAml— Tim MacMahon (@espn_macmahon) March 22, 2023
Meanwhile, though Anthony Davis remains “day-to-day” with his sore foot, he’s expected to play, while the Suns will be without the injured Kevin Durant and Deandre Ayton, who won’t even be in California for the game.
Kevin Durant (ankle) and Deandre Ayton (hip) are out for tomorrows game vs the Lakers. Neither player traveled with the team— Mark Medina (@MarkG_Medina) March 21, 2023
Will Doncic come back in triple-double form? Will Anthony Davis abuse Jock Landale in the post? Will the Warriors fall behind by double-digits in the first quarter yet again? Will we have same-game parlays? The last one at least is a yes.
Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks
The Warriors are a one-point road favorite, a testament to how the Mavericks have been sliding in the past month. They’re 8-29 on the road, while Dallas is 22-14 at home. The over-under is 236 points.
While it seems crazy, we actually like the Warriors in this game, purely because of the Splash Brothers. We like taking the Warriors moneyline, parlayed with Steph Curry getting 30+ points and Klay Thompson going for 20+, at +360. We also like taking the Warriors on the moneyline with Curry and Doncic hitting 30+ points, for +400. And we recommend a parlay of the Warriors -0.5 points, along with Curry going for:
- 30+ points
- 5+ rebounds
- 5+ assists
For longshots, we like parlaying Curry with 30+ points, Draymond Green with 10+ assists, and Kevon Looney stacking up rebounds like he did in the playoffs, pulling down 12+boards. That’s +1500.
Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers
Even without Durant and Ayton, the Suns are only one-point underdogs in this game. The over-under is 229 points.
While Davis is almost certainly going to play, many people have lost time, money, and NBA head coaching jobs expecting The Brow to stay on the court. He’s averaging 35 minutes per game in March, but that just tells us he’s due to be carried into the locker room by the training staff any day now.
We’re staying away from Davis. Instead, give us Devin Booker getting 30+ points, Chris Paul with 10+ assists, and the Suns on the moneyline for +320. With two starters out, Booker will probably need to score 30 for the Suns to win, so why not pick up some extra money and parlay the two outcomes?
We’re also not confident in the Lakers’ erratic three-point shooting. One game after setting a franchise record with 15 first-half three-pointers, the Lakers made five threes the entire game against Dallas. That’s why we like taking Bismack Biyombo to grab 12+ rebounds, parlayed with the Suns moneyline and Booker’s 30+ points for +1000.
For bigger longshots, try this defensive-minded parlay. Along with Phoenix -0.5 points, parlay:
- 2+ Jarred Vanderbilt Steals
- 2+ Chris Paul Steals
- 2+ Anthony Davis Blocks
- 2+ Bismack Biyombo Blocks
Unlikely perhaps, but worth a flyer at +3500. Provided Davis gets those blocks before he limps off the court.
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