Golden State Of Mind - NBA trade rumors: Warriors hopes of obtaining Love all but dead"UNSTOPPABLE BABY!" - Warriors rookie Marc Jackson to the Mavs' bench, after a lay-up during a 29-point loss (2000)https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/50563/gsom-fav.png2014-08-08T20:50:19-07:00http://www.goldenstateofmind.com/rss/stream/54978492014-08-08T20:50:19-07:002014-08-08T20:50:19-07:00Why Kevin Love is a bad idea for the Cavs<h3 class="link-title"><a rel="nofollow" href="https://medium.com/ten-pens/the-kevin-love-problem-e08496464659">Why Kevin Love is a bad idea for the&nbsp;Cavs</a></h3>
<div class="description"><p><p>Very interesting article on medium that raises a couple of points. </p>
<p>Is Love rally all that good if he's never made any of he's teammates better? Seems that they all mostly have regressed when playing with him and get better once they left. </p>
<p>I thought he might be a great fit for the Warriors but after reading the article have changed my mind. I suppose we'll find out soon enough.</p></p></div>
https://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2014/8/8/5985075/why-kevin-love-is-a-bad-idea-from-a-cavs-fans-perspectiveModus Muzy2014-08-07T18:30:02-07:002014-08-07T18:30:02-07:00Poll: Will the Warriors regret losing out on Love?
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<img alt=""Don't worry about all those rumors, Klay - they like you. They really, really like you."" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/KhLYCTGic2pyBg0e-ftHUo0ecYE=/0x0:4000x2667/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/36656510/20130606_kkt_st3_521.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>"Don't worry about all those rumors, Klay - they like you. They really, really like you." | USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>With Yahoo's Adrian Wojnarowski reporting this morning that <a href="https://sports.yahoo.com/news/sources--cavaliers-have-agreement-to-acquire-kevin-love--who-commits-to-staying-in-cleveland-054657392.html" target="new">Kevin Love is headed to the Cleveland Cavaliers</a>, <a href="http://blogs.mercurynews.com/thompson/2014/08/07/warriors-really-going-pass-kevin-love-stephen-curry-tandem/" target="new">Marcus Thompson of the Bay Area News Group</a> "can’t justify passing up the opportunity for having two of the best 15 players in the NBA on your team"</p> <blockquote align="center" class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<p>With reality settling in that <span>Kevin Love</span> is headed to <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.fearthesword.com/">Cavaliers</a>, it's hard not to think <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.goldenstateofmind.com/">Warriors</a> are making a mistake <a href="http://t.co/tyc4ahFw2S">http://t.co/tyc4ahFw2S</a></p>
— Marcus Thompson (@ThompsonScribe) <a href="https://twitter.com/ThompsonScribe/statuses/497528434672009216">August 7, 2014</a>
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<p>Marcus Thompson's tweet accompanying his article about the Golden State Warriors missing out on Kevin Love pretty much sums up his commentary and resonates with some of my thoughts on this matter over time as well, which have been <a href="http://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2014/5/20/5733808/nba-trade-rumor-kevin-love-golden-state-warriors" target="new">detailed throughout our Kevin Love storystream</a>.</p>
<p>Ultimately, it's now time to move on if you hadn't already started that process weeks ago (despite the small chance that the Warriors, <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.canishoopus.com/">Minnesota Timberwolves</a>, or Cleveland Cavaliers have a change of heart at some point before August 23, as <a target="_blank" href="http://www.cbssports.com/nba/writer/ken-berger/24651579/sources-love-trade-agreement-could-have-more-twists-and-turns">Ken Berger of CBS Sports reported this morning</a>). To help with the coping process - for those that are feeling a sense of loss - I offer Ronaldinho's article <a href="http://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2014/7/23/5930447/wait-you-mean-maybe-they-really-dont-want-to-give-up-klay-thompson" target="new">explaining the Warriors' reasoning at length</a>, Evanz's article about <a href="http://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2014/7/18/5914567/Golden-state-warriors-kevin-love-klay-thompson-projections" target="new">Love's potentially minimal statistical impact</a> on the Warriors, and TheBasslineNBA's <a href="http://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2014/8/4/5967917/warriors-need-health-not-love" target="new">more recent fanpost explaining why the Warriors might still be a contender even without Love.</a></p>
<p><i>For more on the many twists, turns, and pump fakes during this ongoing Kevin Love saga,<a target="_blank" href="http://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2014/5/20/5733808/nba-trade-rumor-kevin-love-golden-state-warriors"> check out our storystream</a>.<br></i></p>
https://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2014/8/7/5981181/nba-trade-rumor-2014-kevin-love-golden-state-warriorsNate P.2014-08-05T05:06:05-07:002014-08-05T05:06:05-07:00Cavs, Wolves Have 'Handshake' Deal In Place On Love, Wiggins Trade<h3 class="link-title"><a rel="nofollow" href="http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/234531/Cavs-Wolves-Have-Handshake-Deal-In-Place-On-Love-Wiggins-Trade">Cavs, Wolves Have 'Handshake' Deal In Place On Love, Wiggins&nbsp;Trade</a></h3>
<div class="description"><p><p>Is Kevin Love finally off the market?</p></p></div>
https://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2014/8/5/5970469/cavs-wolves-have-handshake-deal-in-place-on-love-wiggins-traderichstyle2014-07-24T12:30:03-07:002014-07-24T12:30:03-07:00Kevin Love, defensive stats & worthy trade-offs
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<figcaption>Photo by Getty Images.</figcaption>
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<p>Kevin Love is often derided for being a defensive liability, but that general assumption might be overstated. </p> <p>Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News did an excellent job of laying out <a href="http://blogs.mercurynews.com/kawakami/2014/07/23/warriors-klay-thompson-kevin-love/" target="_blank">the big picture about the Golden State Warriors' position on trading for Kevin Love, </a>which is worth a read just as a single statement of the Warriors' reasoning in this process.</p>
<p>Bottom line, in his words: "Lee is getting severely under-valued and Love is getting a little over-valued and in their minds, the true delta is less than Klay T's inherent value." In other words, <i>the Warriors aren't going to offer up Klay Thompson in a package for Love even as<a target="_blank" href="http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-basketball/24634223/report-76ers-nuggets-celtics-could-be-third-team-in-love-trade"> the competition</a> for<a target="_blank" href="http://sports.yahoo.com/news/sources--cavs-looking-for-trade-parts-for-deal-for-kevin-love-185536749.html"> the latter's services</a><a target="_blank" href="http://www.sheridanhoops.com/2014/07/23/exclusive-bulls-have-offered-gibson-mcdermott-and-mirotic-for-love/"> </a>is<a target="_blank" href="http://www.sheridanhoops.com/2014/07/23/exclusive-bulls-have-offered-gibson-mcdermott-and-mirotic-for-love/"> only getting tougher</a>, which <a target="_blank" href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.usatoday.com%2Fstory%2Fsports%2Fnba%2F2014%2F07%2F23%2Fkevin-love-trade-timberwolves-cavaliers-warriors-celtics-bulls%2F13066067%2F&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.goldenstateofmind.com%2F2014%2F7%2F24%2F5931549%2Fkevin-love-trade-rumors-golden-state-warriors-klay-thompson" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener">just increases Minnesota's leverage</a>. </i>And I think<i> </i>Ronaldinho did a solid job <a target="_blank" href="http://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2014/7/23/5930447/wait-you-mean-maybe-they-really-dont-want-to-give-up-klay-thompson">describing why the Warriors' position is one that reasonable people could disagree with</a> but not moronic - and I, for one, do disagree, for whatever that's worth.</p>
<p>But piggybacking off of a point made in both the Kawakami and Ronaldinho articles - as well as <a target="_blank" href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.usatoday.com%2Fstory%2Fsports%2Fnba%2F2014%2F07%2F19%2Fkevin-love-stephen-curry-usa-teammates%2F12876193%2F&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.goldenstateofmind.com%2F2014%2F7%2F24%2F5931549%2Fkevin-love-trade-rumors-golden-state-warriors-klay-thompson" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener">Sam Amick's article for USA Today last week</a> - one of the concerns fueling the Warriors' reluctance about trading for Love is apparently his defensive deficiencies. Ronaldinho did about as well as anyone laying out the specific concerns, but - for the most part - people have generally sort of accepted that Love is a defensive liability without much evidence supporting it beyond, "Duh."</p>
<h4>Love's defense in context</h4>
<h4></h4>
<p>However, <a target="_blank" href="http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11251473/why-trading-kevin-love-no-brainer-nba">ESPN's Kevin Pelton wrote up a pretty detailed analysis</a> of why trading for Love is a no-brainer generally, highlighting both the fact that he's an elite offensive player (not just elite forward) and that he's actually not the terrible defender he's made out to be.</p>
<p>Pelton re-framed Love's defense ability pretty much describing why the numbers don't actually support this notion that he is some massive defensive liability. It's an Insider article, but the relevant words went as follows:</p>
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<p>It's possible to highlight stats that showcase Love's defensive shortcomings, particularly as a rim protector. New <a target="_blank" href="http://stats.nba.com/playerTrackingDefense.html?pageNo=1&rowsPerPage=100&filters=GP*GE*10**FGA_DEFEND_RIM*GE*5&sortField=FGP_DEFEND_RIM&sortOrder=DES&SeasonType=Regular%20Season">SportVU player-tracking data on NBA.com</a> showed that last season opponents shot 57.4 percent when Love was within five feet of attempts near the rim, the league's fourth-worst rate among players who defended at least five rim attempts per game.</p>
<p>However, opponent shooting percentage tells only half of the story. Love's reluctance to contest shots also kept him out of foul trouble and opponents off the free throw line. His 1.8 fouls per 36 minutes were the fewest of any regular big man last season (no one else was below 2.0 per 36), and not coincidentally, the Timberwolves allowed the league's lowest rate of free throws per field goal attempt. The trade-off between not fouling and surrendering layups didn't always work out for Minnesota and former coach Rick Adelman <a target="_blank" href="http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-delicate-balance-of-an-nba-defense/">encouraged his team to foul more frequently</a>, but looking at opponent shooting percentages without context is unfair to Love.</p>
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<p>Pelton ultimately concludes that Love was "an above average defensive player" last season - again, not simply because he's an outstanding rebounder and that matters to creating possessions, but because he's not nearly as bad otherwise as he's made out to be.</p>
<p>Coincidentally, a league source that I have been going back and forth with throughout this entire Love situation relayed similar thoughts just the day before and I'll summarize that conversation, supplemented with the analysis of others from throughout the last year or so (as well as some additional numbers):</p>
<ul>
<li>Love is actually a very good one-on-one post defender. The Synergy numbers bear that out, especially in comparison to David Lee: Love gives up .72 points per possession, Lee gives up .88. If you don't immediately grasp the significance between that difference, consider that Love ranked 43rd in the league whereas Lee ranked 156th. As an interesting side note, Bogut was just ahead of Lee at 148th (.87 PPP).<br> </li>
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<li>As <a href="http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-question-of-kevin-love/" target="_blank">Zach Lowe has described at length in the past</a>, the problems for Love and the Wolves occur primarily because Corey Brewer and Kevin Martin are "serial gamblers". From Lowe's article in March: <br><br>
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<p>Corey Brewer and Kevin Martin, two key wing free agents, gamble their way into crazy fouls all over the floor...These guys are serial gamblers, and a lot of their crunch-time fouls happen before Minnesota’s opponent is in the bonus. But those fouls also put opponents in the bonus. <br><br>• Quick opposing point guards can puncture Minnesota’s scheme. The Wolves play a conservative pick-and-roll defense in which Love and Pekovic hang near the paint to corral ball handlers instead of chasing them far from the hoop. It works in the aggregate; neither big is a major plus defender, but they both understand the scheme and approach it with solid footwork.</p>
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</li>
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<li>And really, "serial gambler" is a generous way to describe what Martin is defensively; long before any Kevin Love trade talks heated up, <a href="http://blogs.mercurynews.com/kawakami/2013/05/30/my-6th-annual-nba-no-defense-team-starring-kevin-martin-demarcus-cousins-blake-griffin-and-more/" target="_blank">Kawakami described Martin as</a> "...a horrendous, horrendous defensive player, who doesn't fight through picks and often zones out off the ball, leading to more than a few wide open shots when his man cuts to the basket or across the floor." </li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>That porous perimeter defense helps to explain why opponents shot so well at the rim - yes, the Wolves give up a high percentage, but Love and Pekovic are also a) put in that situation more often and b) whether they weren't fouling by design or as a tactic to stay on the floor, they were <a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tsl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=team_per_game&lg_id=NBA&year_min=&year_max=&franch_id=&c1stat=pf_per_g&c1comp=lt&c1val=18.4&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=year_id">one of the 20 least foul prone teams in NBA history. </a>Put in simplest terms, playing the Wolves was like getting free runs at the basket if you had capable perimeter players. And that didn't favor either Love or Pekovic, who neither operate well in space nor protecting the rim.<br> </li>
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<ul>
<li>So as a quirky by-product of that system alluded to by Pelton and borne out by the numbers, even the Wolves' opponent field goal percentage overall is a little overstated: they managed to limit the number of points surrendered by allowing<a target="_blank" href="http://bkref.com/tiny/AVpI5"> the fewest opponent free throw attempts in the league</a> last season despite<a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2014.html#misc::10"> playing at the fourth-highest pace in the league.</a> </li>
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<h4>How does this matter for the Warriors presumed interest in Love?</h4>
<p>None of this is to negate the defensive critiques of Love that <a target="_blank" href="http://grantland.com/features/kevin-love-klay-thompson-golden-state-warriors/">Lowe also summarized more harshly in June</a>. But it is to say that a more nuanced look at the context of Love's numbers do in fact support Pelton's summative claim that he was an above average defender or, perhaps better put, not as bad as the surface level numbers make him look.</p>
<p>All of that <i>helps</i> to explain Love's positive D-RAPM as some less of a rebound-inflated illusion and far more as a real phenomenon that at most reflects the low quality of the defenders surrounding him.</p>
<p>Cobbling all those very complementary insights together, you have two takeaways in imagining Love's defensive fit with the Warriors:</p>
<ul>
<li>I'm going to go out on (a very sturdy) limb and say that the Warriors' combination of Andre Iguodala, Draymond Green, and Shaun Livingston are all better perimeter defenders than the majority of the Wolves perimeter defenders, but specifically and especially Brewer and Martin. <br> </li>
<li>A healthy Andrew Bogut is a better frontcourt partner than Pekovic defensively and Festus Ezeli could very well be one as well once fully recovered from injury. <br> </li>
<li>The combination of better perimeter and interior defenders should leave Love less exposed in positions of weakness.</li>
</ul>
<p>So now imagine Love surrounded by better perimeter defenders and a high IQ, veteran post defender like Bogut. Immediately, the Warriors' interior defense improves due to Love's ability to defend post players one-on-one and secure defensive rebounds (which is a valuable contribution to a team's effort to keep an opponent's points per possession low).</p>
<p>While the theory that Bogut would cover for Lee's deficiencies didn't quite pan out, Love is actually a much better complement as a better post-up defender than either of the Warriors' starting posts last year. With Draymond Green also in the mix as a versatile defender, the improvement in the Warriors' interior defense would actually benefit the Warriors' defensive unit as a whole. That matters even more given concerns about the health of Bogut, Ezeli, and Jermaine O'Neal (should he even return) in the post.</p>
<h4>How much would Thompson's loss hurt the defense?</h4>
<h4></h4>
<p>There is certainly a trade-off there that's not to be dismissed: <a target="_blank" href="http://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2014/7/18/5914567/Golden-state-warriors-kevin-love-klay-thompson-projections">as Evanz suggested last week</a>, the gains in the post (on both ends) would be offset somewhat by the loss of Thompson on the perimeter (on both ends). And there's certainly value to the notion of just keeping the team together and growing together independent of how you evaluate that trade-off.</p>
<p>But <a target="_blank" href="http://www.si.com/nba/2014/07/23/warriors-klay-thompson-kevin-love-trade">SI's Rob Mahoney made a good point about Thompson in his article</a> last night exploring the dynamics of a hypothetical Warriors' bid for Love that would have to include Thompson: looking at Thompson as a good defensive complement to Stephen Curry actually, "...lends itself to argumentative warping, namely to the end of claiming that Thompson is a better situational defender than the evidence can support."</p>
<p>Mahoney focused on Thompson's struggles against the elite guards in the league, but a close look at the situational statistics also suggests that Thompson is not only not the elite defender he has been framed as but also not <i>that </i>much better than Shaun Livingston defensively. The one major advantage Thompson has over Livingston is defending spot-ups, where he yields .88 PPP to the latter's .98 PPP. That's significant and also possibly the result of Thompson defending more isolations while Livingston defended more spot-ups - Livingston was especially poor on that and put in that situation 30% of the time.</p>
<p>But if we're comparing Livingston's fit next to Curry, the drop-off from Thompson is considerably less severe: in pick and rolls, Livingston (.82) was about even with Thompson (.81) and in isolations neither Thompson (151st) nor Livingston (192nd) ranked in the top 150 in the league. In other words, yes, Thompson would be a loss defensively but neither so big that it can't be overcome nor bad enough to offset the considerable gains found by adding Love.</p>
<h4>Context matters</h4>
<p>To Pelton's point, context matters when looking at statistics - basketball, despite the increasingly availability of quantitative data to help the average person analyze the game, is still not a math problem that can be solved simply. We can quantify certain events in isolation and even a player's contribution to the outcome of those events to some extent, but really getting a sense of how all those discrete events come together requires digging a bit beneath the surface. That's <i>at least</i> doubly true when talking about defense, which has a ton to do with not only individual ability but also a team's philosophy and a unit's commitment to it - even in a NBA world dominated by individual play, defense is still not a matter of "me vs. you" but "us vs. them". It's not as simple as adding up single number metrics to determine defensive fortitude, but a matter of fit.</p>
<p>In this case, when you look at the whole picture, the benefits of Love bringing better spacing and having a complementary scoring option for Curry offensively in addition to the actually significant defensive upgrade in the post could very well make the Warriors a <i>better</i> team. The cost, of course, is Thompson's perimeter defense but the Warriors are much better equipped there than the conventional wisdom suggests and possibly more in need of help on the interior than some would suggest.</p>
<p>It can be really difficult to project how those things will come together, especially when so many other aspects of the situation are already uncertain (e.g. Can Steve Kerr coach? How good is this team at mostly full healthy?), but - unless you strike gold in the lottery - you have to take risks in order to improve to championship level. And the defensive risk of adding Love at the expense of Thompson is a worthy one once you get past assumptions and accepted defensive reputations.</p>
https://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2014/7/24/5931549/kevin-love-trade-rumors-golden-state-warriors-klay-thompsonNate P.2014-07-23T14:02:31-07:002014-07-23T14:02:31-07:00Why NOT Kevin Love?
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<img alt="Do these guys know what they're doing? Maybe." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Ze7hsfcb4yQp4W_KxVIvTWBl1ws=/0x50:4000x2717/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/35982664/492467095.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Do these guys know what they're doing? Maybe. | Justin Sullivan</figcaption>
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<p>Trying to get inside the front office's mind in the Kevin Love non-trade.</p> <p>Recent news seems to have pushed the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.goldenstateofmind.com/">Warriors</a> further and further down the "probable <span>Kevin Love</span>" destination ladder, which Cleveland and now Chicago emerging as the most likely destinations.</p>
<p>There have been persistent rumors that the Warriors could have closed a deal for Love had they included Klay Thompson, but they declined to. Now, it is important to stress that we do not know if these rumors are true.</p>
<p>After all, there have been rumors that the Cavs thought they had a deal, and then Minnesota asked for more. There have been rumors than <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.canishoopus.com/">Timberwolves</a> GM Flip Saunders doesn't want to saddle Timberwolves Coach Flip Saunders with a mediocre team, and would rather take no deal than a bad deal. It's entirely possible that the Warriors sussed out that Saunders was trying to launch a bidding war that they might not be able to win, and simply declined to dance to his tune.</p>
<p>And, of course, with all the focus on Klay Thompson, if there was an offer on the table that the Warriors turned down, we don't know if it was Klay Thompson and <span>David Lee</span> for Love and <span>Kevin Martin</span>, or Thompson, Lee, <span>Draymond Green</span>, our 2015 first-round pick, and <span>Harrison Barnes</span> for Love, Martin, and Barea - a much worse deal.</p>
<p>It's important to remember that we really don't know. We've heard all sorts of conflicting rumors. But what if? What if we really could have landed Kevin Love for a reasonable package centered around Thompson and Lee? Why didn't we pull the trigger? Isn't that the obvious deal?</p>
<p>It sure seems like it. The conventional wisdom is that if you can get a superstar, you do, and I believe I posited as a thought experiment that it would be smart for the Warriors to offer everyone on the team except Curry for <span>LeBron James</span> (which is, substituting Wade for Curry, is essentially what Miami did, leading to two titles).</p>
<p>That being said, I have a lot of respect for the intelligence of the Warriors front office. I think Lacob, Myers, Kirk, West, and Kerr know an awful lot about basketball. And one of my guiding principles of life is that when a very smart person disagrees with something I think is obvious, I double-check my thinking.</p>
<p>So in this article we're going to explore why the team might have turned down a<b> rumored </b>Klay+Lee for Love+Martin swap. Emphasis on the rumored because I've noticed that for many readers, that rumor is slowly solidifying into fact.</p>
<p>What if the Warriors aren't posturing?</p>
<p>The first and most obvious reason not to make the deal would be if you don't think you can re-sign Kevin Love. Love can opt-in to the final year of his contract, giving him a two-year deal (and all the superstars want two-year deals right now). He can opt out, making him a free agent next summer. It's not clear if he can opt out and then sign an extension, but the simple truth is that given the expected rise in the cap, it really doesn't make sense for Love to do that.</p>
<p>Love has connections to both Los Angeles and Oregon, so while the Warriors might feel they have a good shot at re-signing him, there's no guarantee and there are three other logical destinations (the Lakers, Clippers, and Trailblazers) which might have a bigger location-based appeal and one of them will have max room. Certainly, there's a world of difference between giving up Thompson for 4-5 years of Love, versus giving him up for one or two years of Love. If you trade Klay for Love, then don't re-sign him, the franchise takes a big step backwards. That's not a "whoops we didn't get Bosh so we sold Lin for too little" level setback. It's a potential reversal of the franchise's upward trajectory.</p>
<p>The Warriors' ability to talk to Love's rep is extremely limited, but you can bet somebody, somewhere, is engaging in back-channel communication to figure out how likely Love is to re-sign.</p>
<p>The second reason to be skeptical of Love is that there's a chance that he's something of a stat padder. He's put up fantastic numbers on really bad teams. Now, he's done so in ways (eg good efficiency, positive effect on team rebounding) that suggest it's sustainable, but is possible West and Kerr have come to different conclusions about that? Certainly the fact that Love has never made the playoffs, and in fact never won more than 40 games, raises concerns.</p>
<p>Last year might be forgivable, given the Wolves high pythagorean and the notoriously tough conference. But what about 11-12, when Love played in 55 of his team's 66 games, and they only managed a .394 winning percentage (which in a regular season would be 32 wins). Removing the games when he did play they still won under 44% of their games. And the year before that, Love played 73 games ... and his team won only 17. (They won none of the 9 games in which he didn't play). Remember that a team consisting entirely of replacement-level players is estimated to win about 12 games. Wins are not an individual stat, and some of those Wolves teams truly had nothing else, but even still that's got to give you pause.</p>
<p>Love got all-star honors that year, and started his run of 4+ RAPM numbers, but isn't that exactly the sort of situation where RAPM is going to struggle - when your replacements are barely replacement-level players? In the same way that Mark Jackson's hockey subs seem like they might have inflated Iguodala's RAPM this year, is it possible that the complete lack of competent teammates inflated Love's?</p>
<p>Offensively, his career numbers don't scream superstar: 21.1 pts/36 on .566 TS% is very good, of course. Of course, his last three healthy seasons have been much better than this (25.9, 24.0, and 20.4 pts 36 on .591, .563, and .593 TS% respectively) . If last year is his true baseline, elite volume and top efficiency, then he's an offensive superstar. On the other hand, if those other two years are his real level, and last year was an outlier, then he's merely very very good. And yes, he's a great "stretch 4" - but he shot only 37.6% on three pointers last year. A solid number, especially given his volume, but lower than you might think given the amount of hype he gets for them.</p>
<p>Then there's the question of defense. Love's defensive RAPM have hovered in the 1-1.5 area (solidly above average) for his last few healthy years. On the other hand, it's hard not to notice flaws when you watch him. He isn't great at boxing out, instead leaving his man to go for rebounds. He doesn't protect the rim. It's possible that his DRAPM is so high merely because of his elite rebounding skills, which would have less of an impact on a team that already has Bogut and Ezeli.</p>
<p>There are questions of work ethic and attitude, as well. Love has become a player who doesn't hustle back on defense, particularly if he thinks he was fouled. That sort of thing can be toxic if role players decide it means they don't have to hustle, either. (Superstars like Jordan and Bird were notorious for working harder than their role-playing teammates, challenging them to put in more hours. Sometimes with their fists). The Warriors successfully remolded David Lee into a player who works hard on defense (at least most of the time), but there's no guarantee they could work the same magic with Love.</p>
<p>Certainly, when talking about big men, "not great at boxing out" "leaves his man to go for rebounds" and "doesn't protect the rim" don't make you excited. "Takes a ton of jump shots" isn't thrilling, either - it's not surprising that Love took both the most three-point shots of his career, and posted the lowest offensive rebounding numbers of his career last seasons. When bigs decide that they don't want to go inside anymore, bad things can happen, and Love is a player on a clear "playing outside more on offense" trajectory over his last three healthy seasons. That's cause for at least minor concern.</p>
<p>On the Warriors side, <span>Klay Thompson's</span> contributions are easy to undervalue. As has been pointed out by a lot of people, Curry has said he wants Thompson to stay, and keeping Curry happy matters. I don't think that should be decisive, but if the difference is only a couple of wins (or less, if, say, Draymond was included in the trade) how much value do you put on that? Is making it more likely that Curry re-signs here when his contract is up worth a win or two a year? Does the team need to be extra careful with Curry given that they recently fired a coach he publicly supported?</p>
<p>Defensively, of course, Klay tends to cover the elite point guards in the league. He's a very good man defender. While some people talk about this derisively, in terms of "protecting" Curry, the other way to look at it is that the team doesn't want an elite offensive player spending more energy than he has to on defense. If trading Klay means Curry has to work harder on defense, and that hurt's Curry's offense, that could reduce the wins gap between Klay and Love even further.</p>
<p>A lot of people are worried about Klay's expected max contract, due next year - and with some concern. Klay hasn't yet shown that he's really worth that much. On the other hand, if the cap shoots up as expected, that might not matter. A max-ish (starting around $14m) deal for Klay could, by the end of the deal, be $4-5m below the new max. In other words, compared to the cap, it would look a lot like Curry's $10m deal does with today's cap. Maybe not quite as bad as people fear.</p>
<p>Is any of this absolutely conclusive? I don't entirely think so. To a certain extent I'm playing Devil's advocate here. But the more I look at this, the more it seems closer to a "reasonable disagreement" than "only an idiot wouldn't make that deal!"</p>
<p>Of course, that still leaves the team Warriors the question of how to get into the 55+ win territory where they can realistically start to call themselves a contender, but that's a post for another time.</p>
https://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2014/7/23/5930447/wait-you-mean-maybe-they-really-dont-want-to-give-up-klay-thompsonRonaldinho2014-07-22T13:53:45-07:002014-07-22T13:53:45-07:00Kevin Love trade: Cavs confident, Klay Thompson still the x-factor<blockquote>
<p><p>Minnesota is also reportedly seeking non-guaranteed contracts from Cleveland that would offer the Wolves cap relief... There's also the chance Minnesota would prefer more established players than Wiggins and Bennett. If Golden State were to put Klay Thompson back on the table, it would likely make the Wolves think long and hard about accepting the deal. Chicago can also offer a package of veterans that would include Taj Gibson and Jimmy Butler...If Cleveland if offering Wiggins and Bennett, the package is likely too good for the Wolves to pass up.</p></p>
</blockquote>
<div class="source"><p><p>From "Cavaliers 'confident' they'll land Kevin Love in trade involving Andrew Wiggins" via <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2014/7/22/5927509/kevin-love-trade-rumors-cleveland-cavaliers-andrew-wiggins" target="new">Ricky O'Donnell of SB Nation NBA</a>.</p>
<p></p>
<br /><p>And <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/news/sources--cavs-looking-for-trade-parts-for-deal-for-kevin-love-185536749.html" target="new">Woj has more on the story</a>, which includes the Denver Nuggets jumping into the mix as a suitor for Love. </p>
<p></p>
<br /><p><em>For more on the Warriors pursuit of Love, <a href="http://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2014/5/20/5733808/nba-trade-rumor-kevin-love-golden-state-warriors" target="new">check out our storystream</a>.</em></p></p></div>
https://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2014/7/22/5927755/kevin-love-trade-cavs-confident-klay-thompson-still-the-x-factorNate P.2014-07-21T08:00:05-07:002014-07-21T08:00:05-07:00Thompson, Wiggins, and the Love sweepstakes
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Vyil3kp75z_Q1zix7Ubg13ruivg=/0x105:2921x2052/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/35853802/20140419_mta_aj4_088.JPG.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There isn't really a whole lot of new information out there about the Kevin Love sweepstakes, but if you missed the latest gossip this weekend we'll help to catch you up.</p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.usatoday.com%2Fstory%2Fsports%2Fnba%2F2014%2F07%2F19%2Fkevin-love-stephen-curry-usa-teammates%2F12876193%2F&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.goldenstateofmind.com%2F2014%2F7%2F21%2F5921941%2Fkevin-love-trade-klay-thompson-extension-andrew-wiggins-contract" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener">Sam Amick of USA Today had a pretty detailed account</a> of why the Golden State Warriors won't trade Klay Thompson yesterday, that mostly confirmed (or re-affirmed) things that have already been rumored or discussed.</p>
<ul>
<li>The Warriors are concerned about the defensive trade-offs of giving up ace Klay Thompson to acquire Kevin Love, who isn't known for his defensive ability. <br>
</li>
<li>Thompson is seeking a max contract, which was a given in light of contracts doled out this offseason and would be cheaper than eventually paying Love the max.<br>
</li>
<li>There's some question about whether the Warriors can a) be elite with Love and without Thompson OR b) become elite by standing pat and passing on Love in favor of keeping Thompson.<br>
</li>
</ul>
<p> </p>
<div class="floated-video">
<iframe src="//www.youtube.com/embed/KVtcp8XHhOo" frameborder="0"></iframe><i>A potential theme song for the Warriors' offseason thus far.</i>
</div>
<p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2014/7/18/5914567/Golden-state-warriors-kevin-love-klay-thompson-projections">Evanz's article adds some statistical weight</a> to the position that the Warriors don't <i>need </i>to trade for Love in that his, "...although Love is a sizable upgrade from David Lee (+ 8 wins), the downgrade from Klay to Livingston/Martin is also sizable and negates much of that upgrade." I <a target="_blank" href="http://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2014/7/10/5887715/nba-trade-rumor-2014-kevin-love-klay-thompson-golden-state-warriors">would still maintain</a> that paying Thompson a max contract is a less efficient use of funds than paying Love a max contract - even if Thompson's would cost four million a year less - and if Love would get the team closer to 60 wins,<a target="_blank" href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lebron-james-shouldnt-stay-in-miami-or-go-to-cleveland/"> that's worth it in pursuing a title</a>. As for the general fact of the Warriors denying interest in trading Thompson, what <a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketballinsiders.com/video-the-latest-on-kevin-love/">Yannis Koutroupis of Basketball Insiders reported the other day</a> makes a lot of sense: given a possible negotiation with Thompson in the absence of a trade, of course they need to deny wanting to trade him.</p>
<p>But, again, that's bringing up old stuff.</p>
<p>The new news from the weekend was <a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-rumors-wiggins-set-to-officially-ink-rookie-deal/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=nba-rumors-wiggins-set-to-officially-ink-rookie-deal&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter">the Cavs getting ready to sign rookie Andrew Wiggins to a contract</a>, as <a target="_blank" href="http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11240046/cleveland-cavaliers-sign-andrew-wiggins-week">originally reported by ESPN's Brian Windhorst yesterday</a>. That would take him out of any package for Kevin Love for 30 days, which would do one of two things: buy the Warriors some extra time to persuade the Wolves that their offer is the best or simply continue to drag this thing out for the rest of the summer.</p>
<p>We can continue going back and forth on this, but ultimately we're still a ways away from a resolution and it's not entirely clear what the Warriors are going to do here. But for now I'll leave you with <a target="_blank" href="http://www.boxscoregeeks.com/articles/why-flip-will-lose-love-and-why-that-doesn-t-matter">a quote from Patrick of the Boxscore Geeks</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Love is like a Picasso. You walk into a store where somebody wants to sell the Picasso for $500, you do not think "Oh, this sucker doesn't know he has a Picasso! I'm going to see if I can get it for $250. I'll wait him out, he clearly wants to sell."</p>
<p>You do not do that. You take out your wallet, and you plop down $500 as fast as you fucking can before someone else walks in the store and yells "Holy shit, a Picasso!" and starts a bidding war that you might lose. Because there are no other picasso's coming on the market any time soon.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Happy Monday.</p>
https://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2014/7/21/5921941/kevin-love-trade-klay-thompson-extension-andrew-wiggins-contractNate P.2014-07-18T08:00:04-07:002014-07-18T08:00:04-07:00Love's impact potentially less than expected
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/38K4z3KmI6DexUbgIGN8igv8dJY=/0x0:1000x667/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/35754486/20120319_tjg_ax5_696.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Kelley L Cox-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Let's recap where I stand in terms of understanding the Kevin Love situation:</p>
<ol>
<li><span>The Cavs have loosened their stance on trading Wiggins.</span></li>
<li><span>LeBron James is in Kevin Love's ear like Lance Stephenson was in LeBron James' ear.</span></li>
<li><span>The Warriors front office <i>Voltron of minds</i> still seems to be leaning towards <b>not trading</b> Klay Thompson (note: I almost went with Power Rangers metaphor there).</span></li>
</ol>
<div><i><font size="2"><span>(Note: Nate </span></font><a href="http://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2014/7/18/5914769/nba-trade-rumor-2014-kevin-love-klay-thompson-golden-state-warriors">posted a rumor</a><font size="2"><span> just this morning that suggests now the Warriors are willing to trade Klay, but who the hell knows at this point.)</span></font></i></div>
<div><br></div>
<p>On the face of it, #3 seems outrageous. Kevin Love is the stretchiest of stretch 4's in the game and an elite rebounder. The Warriors actually don't need so much help rebounding, and Love's defense is not demonstrably better than David Lee, but his Reed Richards-like ability to stretch the floor make Love an elite commodity in the NBA and would potentially open up the floor for Curry, Iguodala, and <strike>even Barnes</strike> Shaun Livingston to slash to the basket more often. One only need to look at the free agency ongoings this summer to see where the priorities of front offices around the league are focused, as the likes of Josh McRoberts, Channing Frye, Patrick Patterson, Anthony Tolliver, and Marvin Williams demonstrate the increasing value of the stretch 4 (or 5) in the NBA. Heck, Steve Kerr kicked off his Golden State tenure by proclaiming that he'd like to see the Warriors go after a stretch 4. Heck, imagine the increase in value of David Lee if he could just hit 3pt shots (<a style="background-color: #ffffff;" href="http://www.warriorsworld.net/2014/07/17/david-lees-trainer-drew-hanlen-gives-us-an-inside-look/">apparently he's trying real hard too</a>!).</p>
<p>So it seems it's a no-brainer that the Warriors should trade Klay and Lee for Love...and most likely Kevin Martin. I say seems, because I haven't actually seen many (any?) bloggers or fans actually put a number on it. How many more wins can we reasonably expect with Love? Well, one fairly simple and unbiased way to make a win projection is to use one of the adjusted +/- metrics available. The one I currently trust the most is <a href="http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM">ESPN's "Real +/-" or RPM</a> developed by Steve Ilardi and Jeremias Engelmann. These are two of the brightest NBA stats guys I know of, but more importantly than justification by authority, is the fact that their metric was developed to satisfy one master: <i>predictive power</i>. That, after all, is what we're after.</p>
<p>Let's start with the case where no trade happens. I first had to project minutes for each player. I played it pretty conservative here, using last year's minutes in most cases, except bumping up Draymond quite a bit, bumping Barnes down, and taking a couple minutes away from Lee. Because RPM is a possession-based stat, minutes must be converted to possessions, and combining the possessions and the RPM stats (from ESPN) with a formula for WARP (wins above replacement player), I get a projection of roughly 55 1/2 wins next season. This does not account for improvement or decline of players, injuries, or coaching. Of course, those factors would weigh in either scenario.</p>
<h3>Keep Klay</h3>
<p><a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JoSkLvlRPEox8gQdDG-lqqHiUT1zyqlgakH8FU6W1hE/pubhtml">https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JoSkLvlRPEox8gQdDG-lqqHiUT1zyqlgakH8FU6W1hE/pubhtml</a></p>
<p><iframe width="640" height="480" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JoSkLvlRPEox8gQdDG-lqqHiUT1zyqlgakH8FU6W1hE/pubhtml?widget=true&headers=false"></iframe></p>
<h3>Trade Klay and Lee</h3>
<p>In the case that we trade Klay and Lee, I assume we would take back Kevin Martin. I also assume that Livingston would become the starting SG and Martin would be the primary backup. Now, we can argue all day whether this is actually how it would go down, but I would point out that most of the alternative scenarios you can propose with this set of players won't lead to a very significant difference in win totals (I'll tell you how you can try in a little bit). <b>The bottom line here is that the projected win total using RPM and these minutes is just about 58 wins, resulting in +2.3 wins compared to the Love-less scenario. </b></p>
<p><a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GAxSCGBshL10-wYEe41diSO73oyNTFvUTXxnENdgkC4/pubhtml">https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GAxSCGBshL10-wYEe41diSO73oyNTFvUTXxnENdgkC4/pubhtml</a></p>
<p><iframe width="640" height="480" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GAxSCGBshL10-wYEe41diSO73oyNTFvUTXxnENdgkC4/pubhtml?widget=true&headers=false"></iframe></p>
<p>Now, you certainly don't have to agree with the way I distributed minutes. I encourage you to download the spreadsheets and enter your own numbers. You can also use the spreadsheet as a template for any other teams you like (just look up RPM on the ESPN site). I think you'll find that even if you try very hard, you won't be able to easily come up with wildly different win totals than I show here, or I should say, very different totals for the scenarios with and without Love.</p>
<p>What is suggested by this set of projections is that although Love is a sizable upgrade from David Lee (+ 8 wins), the downgrade from Klay to Livingston/Martin is also sizable and negates much of that upgrade. Clearly, in the event that this trade were made, it would behoove the Warriors to find an upgrade to the SG position, although that might be very difficult given their cap situation going forward, especially given that Love is due for a massive new contract in a couple seasons. I do think there is some method to the madness of signing Klay to a max deal before the salary cap is raised significantly in a couple of summers. And we have seen that play out now with Hayward and Parsons. If Klay can be signed on a 5-year deal, say, for $80M ($16M) next summer, while it might sound "crazy" right now, it may be seen as a relative bargain in just a couple seasons (much as Curry's "risky" deal a couple seasons ago is looking like a massive bargain now).</p>
<p>To summarize my thoughts. I know most people think this trade is a no-brainer. I don't quite agree with that. When you take into account everything involved (and I haven't even come close to doing that myself), I think there's a little bit of brain needed. I think I still lean towards doing the deal. But I certainly understand why the FO might be thinking the way they are. There are multiple levels of decision-making that need to be made here and I hope what I've shared here starts to make that more clear.</p>
https://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2014/7/18/5914567/Golden-state-warriors-kevin-love-klay-thompson-projectionsEvanz